WTI (Nov) $94.61 +$2.45, Brent (Nov) $106.60 +$3.52, Diff -$11.99 +$1.07.

USNG (Oct) $3.30 +28c, UKNG (Oct) 182.3p -2.14p, TTF (Nov) €72.985 -€0.83.

Oil price

Oil has fallen a little this morning as the Iranian Foreign Minister has suggested another 7 day proposed reopening of the Strait of hormuz, the catch is that it is subject to certain caveats which have not been announced yet, if they include fees or Iranian control that will be a red light for the US.

So WTI is $92.31 as I write down $2.30 and Brent $104.82 off $1.78 which widens the differential, which I have been noting all week, up to $12.51. Note the rise in USNG, up to $3.3o and of course whilst the hurricane season hasn’t seen any action yet there is a big storm heading North up the East coast and expected to cause havoc to New York City and Boston anytime now.

Meanwhile the Houthis have been busy attacking Saudi cities and the Yanbu facility, whilst the East/West pipeline is slowly opening up Yanbu is not so exports remain limited and of course next to none from the Hormuz. 

The diesel ban has received a luke-warm reception, it hasn’t gone away but is being called a ‘voluntary, temporary’ ban and being mooted around the industry. Finally, the increased US sanctions on Iran came in overnight but don’t seem to be that punitive, they aim to stop Iranian aircraft flying over US allies in the Gulf, so what and also to stop any banking help but given I’m told that they don’t use banks, just crypto transactions that won’t hurt either…

Genel

Genel has returned to the fray with an increased recommended cash and dividend bid worth 434p for Capricorn Energy which is c.10% higher than the previous offer from DNO. Genel has irrevocables of 39.1% for its latest bid and will now wait for any further developments.

I have also put the other Genel announcement below this one in which the company announce a ‘contemplated tap issue’ of up to $65m subject to the usual caveats of market conditions and acceptable pricing. This is for general corporate purposes. 

The boards of Genel, Bidco and Capricorn are pleased to announce that they have reached agreement on the terms of an increased recommended cash offer under which Bidco will acquire the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Capricorn. The Increased Offer is to be effected by means of a Scottish scheme of arrangement under Part 26 of the Companies Act 2006.

Under the terms of the Increased Offer, each Capricorn Shareholder shall be entitled to receive, in aggregate:

US$5.74 in cash for each Capricorn Share held (the “Increased Acquisition Value”)

The Increased Acquisition Value comprises, for each Capricorn Share:

  • US$4.75 in cash (the “Increased Acquisition Price”); and
  • a special dividend of US$0.99, which is intended and expected to be declared prior to the Effective Date (the “Permitted Dividend”).

The Sterling equivalent value of the Increased Acquisition Value, being 434 pence per Capricorn Share based on the Increased Offer Announcement Exchange Rate (as defined in Appendix I), represents a premium of approximately:

  • 63 per cent. to the closing price per Capricorn Share of 266 pence on 10 March 2026 (being the day prior to the start of the Offer Period) (the “Undisturbed Date”); and
  • 80 per cent. to the volume weighted average price per Capricorn Share of 241 pence during the three-month period ended on the Undisturbed Date.

The Increased Acquisition Value also provides Capricorn Shareholders with superior value to the offer initially announced by DNO Bidco AS (“DNO Bidco”) on 1 September 2026 and revised on 17 September 2026 (the “DNO Offer”), as the Increased Acquisition Value represents:

  • an increase of US$0.53 per Capricorn Share as compared to the acquisition value under the terms of the DNO Offer of US$5.214 (the “DNO Offer Acquisition Value”); and
  • a premium of approximately 10 per cent. to the DNO Offer Acquisition Value.

The Increased Acquisition Value (assuming the Permitted Dividend is declared and paid in full) implies a value for the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Capricorn of approximately US$436 million on a fully diluted basis, which is equivalent to £330 million based on the Increased Offer Announcement Exchange Rate (as defined in Appendix I).

The Increased Acquisition Price payable under the Increased Offer is expressed in US$. The US$ denominated Increased Acquisition Price reflects the underlying characteristics of Capricorn’s business activities, which are largely denominated in US$.

If, on or after the date of this announcement and prior to the Effective Date, any dividend, distribution, or other return of value or excess is declared, made, or paid or becomes payable by Capricorn (other than, or in excess of the amount of, the Permitted Dividend), Bidco reserves the right to reduce the Increased Acquisition Price payable under the terms of the Increased Offer for the Capricorn Shares by an amount equal to the amount of any such dividend, distribution or other return of value or excess. In such circumstances, the Capricorn Shareholders shall be entitled to retain any such dividend, distribution, or other return of value declared, made, or paid.

Details of the initial offer by Bidco for Capricorn which was recommended by the Capricorn Directors (the “Initial Offer”) were set out in the firm offer announcement dated 2 July 2026 (the “Announcement”) and the scheme document published on 21 July 2026 (the “Scheme Document”). This announcement should be read in conjunction with the Scheme Document. The Genel Acquisition received the support of in excess of 99 per cent. of the Capricorn Shares voted (whether in person or by proxy) at the Court Meeting and the General Meeting which took place on 18 August 2026 (an announcement in respect of which was made by Capricorn on 18 August 2026).

The boards of Genel, Bidco and Capricorn also confirm that the Egyptian Competition Authority approved the Genel Acquisition on 7 September 2026, meaning that the Egyptian Merger Condition has been satisfied. This leaves the Egyptian Condition as the only outstanding regulatory condition as at the date of this announcement. Capricorn (in co-operation with Genel and Bidco) has had several constructive discussions with the Egyptian Government and made significant progress towards satisfying the Egyptian Condition since the Announcement. Genel wishes to take this opportunity to thank the Egyptian Government for its collaborative approach to these discussions to date. In light of this positive engagement, the boards of Genel and Bidco continue to expect that the Egyptian Condition will be satisfied in accordance with the expected timetable set out in the Announcement and continue to expect that the Scheme shall become Effective during the fourth quarter of 2026.

  1. Background to the Increased Offer

On 1 September 2026, the boards of DNO ASA (“DNO”), DNO Bidco and Capricorn announced the DNO Offer to acquire the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Capricorn. On 17 September 2026, the boards of DNO, DNO Bidco and Capricorn announced a revision to the DNO Offer.

Following the announcement of the revision of the DNO Offer on 17 September 2026, Genel approached Capricorn with an increased proposal at the Increased Acquisition Value, representing a premium of approximately 10 per cent. to the DNO Offer Acquisition Value. Following discussions, the board of directors of each of Genel, Bidco and Capricorn have agreed the terms of an increased recommended offer by Bidco for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Capricorn.

  1. Irrevocable Undertakings and Support for the Increased Offer

Prior to the Announcement, Bidco received an irrevocable undertaking from the Capricorn Director who holds Capricorn Shares, as set out in the Scheme Document, which remains binding in relation to the Increased Offer.

Bidco has also received revised irrevocable undertakings from Palliser Capital (UK) Ltd, Newtyn Management, LLC, Kite Lake Capital Management (UK) LLP (“Kite Lake”), and Madison Avenue Partners, LP (“Madison Avenue”) (together, the “Irrevocable Shareholders”) to vote (or procure the voting) against and/or not accept (or procure the non-acceptance of) any offer other than the Genel Acquisition in respect of a total of 27,903,950 Capricorn Shares representing, in aggregate, approximately 39.1 per cent. of Capricorn’s share capital in issue on 24 September 2026, being the last Business Day prior to the date of this announcement (the “Revised Irrevocable Undertakings”).

The Revised Irrevocable Undertakings prevent such Capricorn Shareholders from selling all or any part of their Capricorn Shares. The irrevocable undertaking from the Capricorn Director who holds Capricorn Shares remains binding in the event that a higher competing offer is made for Capricorn, whilst the Revised Irrevocable Undertakings remain binding in the event a higher competing offer is made unless the competing offer represents an improvement of 10 per cent. or greater in respect of the Increased Acquisition Value (including the Permitted Dividend). Bidco has therefore received irrevocable undertakings in respect of a total of 27,908,345 Capricorn Shares representing, in aggregate, approximately 39.1 per cent. of Capricorn’s issued share capital.

Further details of the Revised Irrevocable Undertakings, including the circumstances in which they shall cease to be binding, are set out in Appendix II to this announcement.

  1. Views of the Capricorn Directors

The Capricorn Directors, who have been so advised by Canaccord Genuity as to the financial terms of the Increased Offer, consider the terms of the Increased Offer to be fair and reasonable. In providing its advice to the Capricorn Directors, Canaccord Genuity has taken into account the commercial assessments of the Capricorn Directors. Canaccord Genuity is providing independent financial advice to the Capricorn Directors for the purposes of Rule 3 of the Code.

The Capricorn Directors’ recommendation of the DNO Offer has accordingly been withdrawn with immediate effect in favour of implementing the Increased Offer. Although the DNO Offer has not lapsed as a result of this announcement, in light of the Increased Offer from Bidco, the Capricorn Directors intend to adjourn the court meeting and the general meeting in connection with the DNO Offer convened for 1.00 p.m. and 1.15 p.m., respectively on 16 October 2026. A further announcement will be made by Capricorn in this regard in due course. It is therefore recommended that Capricorn Shareholders take no further action in relation to the DNO Offer.

Capricorn Shareholders should note the following factors in connection with the Increased Offer:

  • the Genel Acquisition has already been approved by the requisite majority of Scheme Shareholders at the Court Meeting and by the requisite majority of Capricorn Shareholders at the General Meeting;
  • the Egyptian Merger Condition has been satisfied following the Egyptian Competition Authority’s confirmation that the Genel Acquisition has been approved and as such the Egyptian Condition is the final outstanding regulatory condition to the Genel Acquisition; and
  • the Revised Irrevocable Undertakings given to Bidco by the Irrevocable Shareholders represent approximately 39.1 per cent. of the share capital of Capricorn in issue on 24 September 2026.

Given the above, the Capricorn Directors believe that the Increased Offer provides Capricorn Shareholders with superior value, certainty and deliverability relative to the DNO Offer.

  1. Information on Genel and Bidco

Bidco

Bidco is a limited company registered in England and Wales and incorporated on 19 May 2026. Bidco is a wholly owned indirect subsidiary of Genel. Bidco was formed for the purposes of the Genel Acquisition and has not traded since its date of incorporation, nor has it entered into any obligations other than in connection with the Genel Acquisition and the Increased Offer.

Genel

Genel is a socially responsible oil producer, with a portfolio of production and exploration assets, including production assets in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and exploration licences in Oman and Somaliland.

Genel’s strategy comprises three objectives designed to build a business with resilient and diversified cash flows that deliver sustainable value to shareholders, and with the aim of restarting the payment of a regular dividend: (i) a strong balance sheet; (ii) diversified and resilient cash generation; and (iii) investment in new cash flows.

The Genel business is a resilient, cash-generative platform with significant unvalued potential. For the financial year ended 31 December 2025, Genel generated 17,520 bopd in working interest production, with an EBITDAX of US$43 million (2024: US$1 million).

Genel Shares are listed on the Official List maintained by the Financial Conduct Authority (the “Official List”) and admitted to trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange.

On 20 August 2026, Genel announced that, in connection with the Genel Acquisition, it had requested to transfer the listing category of all of its ordinary shares of 10 pence each from the equity shares (transition) category of the Official List to the equity shares (commercial companies) category of the Official List, in accordance with the UK Listing Rules (the “Transfer”). The Transfer is subject to, amongst other things, the completion of the Genel Acquisition. Further announcements will be made in due course regarding the timetable and the expected date that the Transfer will take effect.

  1. Information on Capricorn

Capricorn, a Scottish public limited company headquartered in Edinburgh, is an independent energy company which has been listed on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange for more than 30 years.

Capricorn’s recent presence in the North Sea focused around significant exploration activity and the development of two material development projects, being Catcher and Kraken, which both began production in 2017. These interests were subsequently sold in November 2021. Capricorn continued to maintain its business in the UK North Sea, through the drilling of the Jaws and Diadem exploration wells in 2022, and since then has focused on business development activities in the region.

Currently, Capricorn’s core operations are in Egypt’s Western Desert, where it holds a portfolio of onshore development and production assets. In May 2025, Capricorn agreed with EGPC to consolidate eight of its 50:50 jointly owned concessions into a single, integrated licence with enhanced commercial terms, providing a platform for future growth. On 30 March 2026, Capricorn announced that it had received formal parliamentary ratification of this agreement.

In addition to maximising value from its assets in Egypt, from 2023 onwards Capricorn has been focused on streamlining operations, reducing costs and has returned around $600 million to shareholders.

  1. Implementation of the Increased Offer

It is proposed to implement the Increased Offer by way of amending the Scheme. Further information relating to the implementation of the Increased Offer, including details of any further meetings of the Capricorn Shareholders in connection with the Scheme (if required) and the date of the Sanction Hearing (once set) will be announced through a Regulatory Information Service.

Save as disclosed in this announcement, the Increased Offer will be subject to the terms and conditions set out in Part 4 of the Scheme Document with:

  • references to the “Acquisition Price” therein being read as the Increased Acquisition Price set out in this announcement; and
  • references to the “Acquisition Value” therein being read as the Increased Acquisition Value set out in this announcement.
  1. Financing the Increased Offer

Bidco is providing the cash consideration payable under the Increased Offer together with certain fees and expenses in connection with the Increased Offer, through a combination of its own existing cash resources and new debt financing. A summary of the terms of the new debt financing is contained in Appendix III.

PJT Partners, as financial adviser to Bidco, is satisfied that sufficient resources are available to Bidco to satisfy in full the Increased Acquisition Price payable to Capricorn Shareholders pursuant to the terms of the Genel Acquisition. PJT Partners has not been required to confirm, and has not confirmed, that resources are available to Capricorn to satisfy payments to Capricorn Shareholders pursuant to the Permitted Dividend. Further details of the Permitted Dividend, including the risks to Capricorn Shareholders if, for any reason, the payment obligations pursuant to the Permitted Dividend are unable to be satisfied by Capricorn, are set out below and in paragraph 9 of Part 1 of the Scheme Document.

  1. Permitted Dividend

Consistent with the Initial Offer, the Increased Offer contemplates, and the boards of Genel, Bidco and Capricorn have agreed to, the declaration and payment of the Permitted Dividend. The Permitted Dividend represents the same value to Capricorn Shareholders as the dividend permitted under the terms of the Initial Offer.

Whilst payment of the Permitted Dividend will be subject to compliance with applicable statutory requirements at the relevant time, prior to the Announcement, the Capricorn Board concluded that in all reasonable circumstances Capricorn would have available to it sufficient cash resources to pay the Permitted Dividend in full. The Capricorn Board has updated that analysis prior to the date of this announcement and has again concluded that in all reasonable circumstances it will have available to it sufficient cash resources to pay the Permitted Dividend in full.

Further details of the Permitted Dividend, including in respect of the ability of the Capricorn Board lawfully to declare and pay the Permitted Dividend, are set out in paragraph 9 of Part 1 of the Scheme Document.

  1. General

The expected timetable of principal events for the implementation of the Scheme (as amended) remains as set out on page 10 of the Scheme Document. If any of the dates and/or times in the expected timetable change, the revised dates and/or times will be notified by announcement through a Regulatory Information Service. Subject to the satisfaction (or where applicable, waiver) of the Conditions, the Scheme is expected to become Effective during the fourth quarter of 2026.

The Increased Offer does not change Bidco’s intentions as regards the business of Capricorn (including locations of its operations), the management and employees of Capricorn and the proposals in respect of the Capricorn Share Plans, as set out in the Scheme Document and in the letters already sent to the participants in the Capricorn Share Plans informing them of the effect of the Scheme on their rights under the Capricorn Share Plans and, where applicable, containing appropriate proposals in respect of such rights.

The views of the Capricorn Board on the stated intentions of Genel and Bidco set out in the Scheme Document also remain unchanged.

Bidco has agreed to waive any right it may have to terminate the Co-operation Agreement as a result of the announcements in relation to the DNO Offer on 1 September 2026 and 17 September 2026 respectively pursuant to a side letter dated on or around the date of this announcement (the “Co-operation Agreement Side Letter”).

Genel and Bidco confirm that:

  • the Egyptian Merger Condition has been satisfied following the Egyptian Competition Authority’s confirmation that the Genel Acquisition has been approved; and
  • the Egyptian Condition is the final outstanding regulatory condition to the Genel Acquisition.

Capitalised terms in this announcement, unless otherwise defined have the same meanings as set out in the Scheme Document.

  1. Documents available on website

Copies of the following documents shall be made available on Genel’s and Capricorn’s websites at https://genelenergy.com/offer/ and https://www.capricornenergy.com/investors/ respectively until the Effective Date:

  • this announcement;
  • the Co-operation Agreement Side Letter;
  • the Revised Irrevocable Undertakings;
  • documents relating to the financing of the Scheme referred to in section 8 above; and
  • the consents from PJT Partners, Canaccord Genuity and Moelis to being named in this announcement.

Tap issue

Genel Energy Plc has engaged Pareto Securities AS as Manager and Bookrunner for a contemplated tap issue of up to USD 65 million in the outstanding senior unsecured bond (ISIN NO 0013512384) subject to market conditions and acceptable price. The purpose of the tap issue is for general corporate purposes.

The investor presentation prepared in relation to the tap issue shall be made available (subject to certain restrictions relating to persons resident in restricted jurisdictions) at https://genelenergy.com/offer/.

And finally…

Last night England threw away a strong position in the 2nd ODI international, chasing 322 with ease at one stage Rooot and Brook failed and Butler did his hamstring. England ended on 305-9 which makes the third match on Sunday (10:30) at The Oval a series decider.

The international break for the awful Nations League continues, last night wales lost 1-0 to Portugal, tonight Northern Ireland travel to Georgia.  Tomorrow Scotland unveil their new Belgian manager, Sebastien Pocognoli in Slovenia, and England face Spain at Wembley at 19:45.

I noted yesterday about this weekend’s F1 GP which is in Bacu, Azerbaijan. Watch out because due to a Remembrance Day holiday on Sunday the race is tomorrow. Quali is at 13:00 today and the race is at 12:00 tomorrow. 

And the flat season draws to a close with a big day at Newmarket with the famous Cambridgeshire and the Middle Park Stakes and racing also happens at Haydock and a good card at Belmont Park over the pond.