Daily Blog Archive

Today I talk about management changes at Sound Energy as its metamorphosis continues and also Coro Energy as it announces another successful well. Echo Energy has completed its deal and now looks forward to Tapi Aike whilst Eco Atlantic has fallen due to heavy oil, unnecessarily in my view. At Wentworth former CEO Eskil Jersing has been given the El Bow as potential acquisitions failed to materialise. There is a Longboat coming over the horizon laden with former Faroe management looking for funding to go back and do it all again. And Talon Petroleum is also queuing up to invest more in the North Sea. Finally a slate of video interviews by myself and VSA CEO Andrew Monk recorded at Africa Oil Week.

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Oil rose slightly again on Friday after dreams of a trade deal but no sign of anything yet. Today Genel announce that their farm-out onshore Somaliland is underway after buying in the 25% balance from East Africa Resource Group. Reabold and Union Jack announce that operator Rathlin have upped their numbers quite substantially and confirm that the discovery is primarily oil which should when the CPR comes out deliver significant value.

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Oil continues to firm up, yesterday it was Barkindo saying that Opec production cuts may not need to be that deep as the market for 2020 looks brighter than expected. The API built again, by 4.3m barrels which has knocked crude by around 35c this morning. A very positive statement from Aminex which shows real progress being made in Tanzania.

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Oil fell but not as much as it might have after production rises from the KSA and the USA. An upbeat trading and operational update from Genel this morning where cash flow is very strong, funding capex, dividends and probably more M&A as well. The Sarta development proceeds incredibly fast and hoping for production next year. President update the market as they start to put gas through their own pipeline which is to be expanded by January. Finally it may be worth taking a look at the Block Energy shareholder list as well known predator Jon Fitzpatrick declares a stake to add to that of Alistair Ferguson, Chairman of Solo (Scirocco)…

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Oil prices drifted on worse than expected crude builds reported by both the API and the EIA. However, the product markets were very different with both agencies reporting a quite substantial draw in both gasoline and distillates. Genel has announced Tawke production of 119,800 bopd which will rise above 120,000 bopd by the year end, also are getting on with the Peshkabir-to-Tawke gas project. Echo Energy has decided on a location for its first of four exploration wells at Tapi Aike which shareholders have been getting very excited about for some time. Finally Block Energy, having announced a GSA yesterday have completed at WR-38Z but no flow rates until after testing in the coming weeks.

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I catch up on the oil price which in my absence has risen by three dollars and looks quite healthy just now. Kosmos have another monster find off Mauritania whilst Cairn have another delay in India arbitration and a duster in Mexico. Reabold have an admin delay with regard the the Rathlin swap and I get into the TV studio with James Menzies of Coro Energy.

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Today’s blog covers an interesting trip to Kurdistan where a good number of investors and analysts saw at close range the oil and gas facilities on the ground. At Genel there is a balanced current portfolio which already provides huge cash flows that not only fund the capex programme but a sizeable dividend as well and profitable at around $30 oil.They have considerable upside at, in the first instance Sarta which the company work with Chevron and where the upside includes the biggest potential field in country. In addition they have the possibility of everything coming together at Bina Bawi plus exploration at Qara Dagh to give substantial cash flow for capex and a generous dividend. Over at Gulf Keystone they have one massive field in Shaikan where they feel that exponential growth is not just possible but deliverable, 38/- b/d could become 55/- b/d, 75/- b/d and then 100/- b/d within 5 years which certainly pays for itself as well as buy-backs and dividends. Both companies are exceptional opportunities and offer returns rarely seen elsewhere in the market.

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Oil drifted with the IMF cutting GDP forecasts again. A smart move by Echo Energy as they buy some production with upside to add to the now more balanced portfolio. At PetroTal the 4H horizontal well has come in above expectations and 20% cheaper than budget and with investments in the production facility capacity is rising. DGO are continuing to up their governance game ahead of joining the premium part of the LSE and President has done a smart deal taking more gas through its pipeline and also some oil, for nothing and the seller is buying $1.825m of President’s stock.

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Savannah has signed a loan agreement to draw $5m for working capital and general purposes ahead of the completion of the Seven Energy Transaction.

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Trinity’s operational update is positive particularly going forward where low-cost, high margin publication gives the business ‘significant upside potential’. Over at Premier the operational excellence continues as the Tolmount East well comes in, a very valuable discovery indeed. Finally the Gazelle-1 well results from Petro Matad are inconclusive at best and confirming withdrawal from Block V which I thought had already been done, at least this year.

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