WTI (Oct) $62.37 -$1.30, Brent (Nov) $66.37 -$1.12, Diff -$4.00 +18c.

USNG (Oct) $2.93 -10c, UKNG (Oct) 79.22p -2.04p, TTF (Oct) €32.245 -€0.905.

Oil price

Yesterday we lost the gains from Wednesday mainly due to the EIA price forecasts which have come in a bit lower than expected, also as expected was the report from the IEA which was as nonsensical as usual and as fanciful as me riding the winner in the St Leger.  

But today oil is better again and at this rate will be up on the week, the market has dismissed those predictions as well as the inventory data which showed a build rather than the forecast draw. 

Serica Energy

I’ve been shown some rather outlandish theories from retail shareholders on bulletin boards who claim to know the make of the compressor on the Triton FPSO and therefore have specialist knowledge. I don’t read the boards very often for reasons like this, investors being led on incorrect data so I have done some checking.

I am told they are wide of the mark on all fronts. Anyone with queries should always check with the company, and as I said, there is no reason to believe Triton won’t be back up to full speed in the near future.”

Petrofac

Petrofac yesterday announced that it had reached an agreement in principle with SAMSUNG E&A and Saipem regarding their claims relating to the Thai Oil project. The commercial terms are supported by the Ad Hoc Group of Bondholders, subject to the agreement of longform documents. This agreement will enable the Restructuring to proceed with the consent of those parties.

The Group will now work to conclude discussions with key stakeholders on next steps towards implementation of the Restructuring. It is expected that, subject to receipt of all requisite approvals and satisfaction of conditions, the Restructuring will be completed by the end of November 2025 and the Company will share further details as soon as appropriate to do so, in line with its disclosure obligations.

So Petrofac has announced that it has struck a deal with Samsung and Saipem with regard to the claims over the Thai Oil refinery whereby the ongoing arbitration claim exists around the EPC contract for the refinery expansion. 

Now that all the contractors are in line there appear to be few other reasons to delay the Petrofac restructuring and with bondholder agreement under wraps maybe one can even think about a future for the company by which it can use its world leading operational skills as we always have done. Guidance from the company is that this should be completed by the end of November 2025.

And finally…

Tomorrow is T20 finals day at Edgbaston, always a fun event even if it rains…

Racing sees the final Classic of the season as the St Leger takes place at Doncaster. Not a big field and dominated by the Irish but always an interesting race. 

The Prem is back like a bad penny during the cricket season key fixtures include the hard fought London derby between Spurs and the Hammers, also in London Chelsea visit the Bees and the South Coast Riviera derby sees the Cherries host the Seagulls. Sunday has a visit to the Noisy Neighbours by the Red Devils, unusually after a poor start City are already four places below their rivals in the Prem.

No F1 this weekend but for petrol heads maybe the Goodwood Revival actually gets the nod and many from the grid walk will be in West Sussex over the weekend for fantastic motor racing and fashion which has to be seen to be believed…

And the 2nd T20 between England and the Proteas takes place at Old Trafford tonight. After the debacle of the 5 over shoot out we pray for a fine evening in Manchester…