Oil price, DEC, Arrow, Touchstone. And finally…

WTI (Dec) $76.66 -$1.60, Brent (Jan) $81.18 -$1.29, Diff -$4.52 +31c.

USNG (Dec) $3.19 +8c, UKNG (Dec) 119.0p -1.85p, TTF (Dec) €46.565 -€1.775. 

Oil price

Oil is falling sharply today as the knock on effects of the EIA inventory stats forced traders to cut positions something that the Saudi Energy Minister blamed on ‘speculators’. 

Diversified Energy Company

Diversified has announced that it intends to seek an additional listing of the Company’s Ordinary Shares on the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) (the “US Listing”). No new Ordinary Shares are being offered or sold in connection with the US Listing, and there will be no change in the total issued share capital of the Company following the US Listing.

I have put the entire DEC announcement in below as it contains a great deal of technical listing data. But the key point is that readers know that the previous plan to list in the US was pulled after company brokers detected a worry that such a listing would inevitably come with a raise that would affect demand for the shares and thus it is crucial that this listing is going ahead with no raise attached to it. 

I have spoken to Rusty Hutson about this and he believes, as do I, that it will significantly advantage DEC for it to be listed in the USA. The shares will be fungible and accordingly make it attractive to hold the shares in either jurisdiction. More importantly I think that US investors will like this and I would not be surprised to see a decent amount of demand drag on the shares in a westerly direction. 

Following its announcement on 5 October 2023 that the Company was no longer pursuing its previously communicated desire to list its Ordinary Shares in the US given the equity market dynamics, the Board and management consulted with their advisors, along with various US and UK institutional investors on alternative paths forward without the need of a structure incorporating a capital raise to achieve a US listing. After careful consideration of the feedback received, the Company has decided to pursue a direct listing of its Ordinary Shares on the NYSE. The direct listing achieves the Company’s previously stated goal of a dual listing, without offering or selling any new Ordinary Shares. The Board and management believe they have chosen an approach that both supports existing shareholders and provides US investors the opportunity to more easily access an investment in the Company’s Ordinary Shares.

The Board believes that the US Listing, in the near-term, will be beneficial for the Company and its shareholders for multiple reasons, including raising the Group’s profile in the US. The Board expects that the US Listing will facilitate broadening the Company’s access to high quality equity investors (including domestic US funds) and will also increase the Company’s ability to attract a broader group of equity research analysts, as there are a comparable set of peer companies listed in the US which have a strong US equity investor base and are covered by a broad group of equity research analysts. The Board also expects that the US Listing will enhance the Company’s daily trading liquidity and potentially provide it access to additional financing options which can be used to continue the Company’s acquisitive strategy.

The Company will continue to be listed on the premium listing segment of the Official List of the Financial Conduct Authority and its Ordinary Shares will continue to be traded on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Further, it is expected that the Company will also continue to be a constituent of the FTSE 250 index in the UK and the Board will continue to adhere to its standards of governance and corporate responsibility as required by the UK Corporate Governance Code.

Due to NYSE requirements, prior to the US Listing taking place, the Company will effect a consolidation of the Company’s existing ordinary share capital at a ratio of one new ordinary share of nominal value of £0.20 each for every twenty existing ordinary shares of nominal value of £0.01 each (the “Consolidation”). Therefore, to implement the US Listing, shareholder approval is being sought to pass certain shareholder resolutions to (i) effect the Consolidation, and (ii) adopt new articles of association to allow for the settlement of trades in respect of the Ordinary Shares in the US and UK following the US Listing (the “Resolutions”). The implementation of the US Listing is conditional upon the approval of the Resolutions by the shareholders at the General Meeting. Further details regarding the proposed US Listing, Consolidation, the proposed new articles of association and the Resolutions are set out in the Circular.

Further to this announcement, the Company has posted a circular (the “Circular”), notice of general meeting and form of proxy to shareholders convening a General Meeting (“General Meeting”). The General Meeting will be held at the offices of FTI Consulting, 200 Aldersgate, Aldersgate Street, London, EC1A 4HD, United Kingdom at 1:00PM (GMT) on 4 December 2023. A copy of the circular and notice of general meeting will also be made available on the Company’s websitehttps://ir.div.energy/. Capitalised terms used but not otherwise defined in this announcement have the same meaning given to them in the Circular.

In connection with the US Listing, the Company has also filed a registration statement on Form 20-F (“Registration Statement”) required for the US Listing of its Ordinary Shares for review by the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission (“SEC”). The Registration Statement has not yet been declared effective. Subject to approval of the Resolutions at the General Meeting and certain other regulatory conditions (including the SEC declaring the Registration Statement effective), admission and commencement of dealings in Ordinary Shares on the New York Stock Exchange is expected to commence on or around 11 December 2023.

The expected timetable for the General Meeting, the Consolidation and the US Listing is set out below:

Arrow Exploration

Arrow has provided an update on the Rio Cravo Este-6 well on the Tapir Block in the Llanos Basin of Colombia where Arrow holds a 50% beneficial interest, and the Oso Pardo-3 well on the Oso Pardo field in the Middle Magdalena Valley Basin of Colombia where Arrow has a 100% working interest.

RCE-6

The Company has completed the RCE-6 well in the Carbonera C7 formation and the well has been put into production. The well penetrated a 16 ft pay zone in a high quality upper Carbonera C7 sand, with a porosity of 27%. The well is currently flowing, with the ESP turned off, at 834 BOPD gross (417 BOPD net) of 29.8 API gravity.  As reservoir stewards, the Company will conservatively produce at rates that allow for maximum oil recoveries and optimal production rates.

After penetrating the Carbonera C7, the RCE-6 well continued drilling and encountered pay in the Ubaque formation.  In the Ubaque formation the well penetrated 7 ft of high quality pay , with an estimated porosity of 24%. The Ubaque zone was tested for 78 hours and reached a production rate of 393 BOPD gross (197 BOPD net) of heavy crude oil of 13.3° API with a water cut of less than 10%. The Ubaque formation was shut in after the test and the well was completed in the Carbonera C7 formation. The Ubaque discovery in RCE-6 is expected to add reserves and future production to Arrow.

Initial production results are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery.

The Gacheta formation was not tested in the RCE-6 well.

Tapir Forward Work Program

The Rio Cravo Este-7 well spud on November 14. This development well is targeting the multizone pay stack within the RCE fault bounded structure. As well, upon RCE-7 being placed on-stream, the RCE 8 development well will be drilled to further evaluate the multizone potential that has evolved from the RCE structure.

The drilling rig is then expected to return to the Carrizales Norte field to begin a multi well program. Priority vertical locations will focus on exploitation of the material Ubaque discovery. Upon completion of the dedicated horizontal well pad, a series of horizontal wells will be drilled with a second rig to efficiently exploit the Ubaque reservoir. Pad completion is expected in Q1 2024. The existing Carrizales Norte vertical pad will focus on testing the Carrizales Nor Oeste prospect directly adjacent to the Ubaque discovery. Horizontal drilling is expected to commence in late Q1 2024 once the pad is ready. As previously disclosed the Ubaque Sand reservoir is 60 feet thick over a large area and is tailor made for horizontal well exploitation.

Oso Pardo – 3

The Oso Pardo-3 (“OP-3”) well spud on October 27 and has reached TD in the Umir formation. The well penetrated multiple pay zones totaling 53 ft of net pay in high quality sands, with an average porosity of 23%. Initial 3D seismic and log interpretation indicates OP-3 has proven up additional locations within the existing  100%-owned Oso Pardo Block.

OP-3 is currently being completed and the Company plans to give further updates once this well is put on production in the next couple of weeks.

The Company plans to drill a second well, Oso Pardo-4, once the Oso Pardo-3 well is on production.

Marshall Abbott, CEO of Arrow commented:

“The RCE-6 test results in both the Ubaque formation and Carbonera are material and exciting for the Company. The results demonstrate that the Carbonera remains a solid high volume producer while  the Ubaque formation has proven production that extends beyond the Carrizales Norte complex. Multiple development locations are anticipated based on current results, including horizontal drilling in the Ubaque reservoir in the Carrizales Norte field.  Horizontal wells typically produce at higher rates, increasing recovery and the economics of heavy oil fields.”

“Arrow’s fully funded, low risk drilling program continues to build momentum across our extensive portfolio, where we aim to have four additional development wells on production before the end of 2023. We are also encouraged by the interpretation of the Tapir 3D seismic and look forward to providing further updates in due course.”

The numbers here speak for themselves, the RCE-6 well completed and producing 834 b/d from the C7 interval as well as success in the Ubaque formation where 393 b/d is behind the pipe. With the RCE-7 well already spudded and the 8 well after that there is a continuing sequence which now means moving to the Carrizales Norte field in the new year.

In addition to that the Oso Pardo – 3 well is drilling ahead and has already reached TD in the Umir formation where it has penetrated multiple pay zones totaling 53 ft of net pay in high quality sands, with an average porosity of 23%. Added to that there is more as initial 3D seismic and log interpretation indicates OP-3 has proven up additional locations within the existing and importantly, 100%-owned Oso Pardo Block where there are two more wells upcoming. 

Marshall Abbott reminds us that the entire programme is fully funded and low risk and in my view it will offer a significant return to shareholders and this he points out that horizontal drilling ‘typically produce at higher rates, increasing recovery and the economics of heavy oil fields’. What is not to like and I remain with my highly realistic TP of 50p which to be honest is beginning to look a bit on the parsimonious side given all these successes and ahead of a hopefully informative investor visit before long.

Touchstone Exploration

I said that I would watch the Investor Meet presentation yesterday before adding any further comments to those I made after the results on Tuesday. There wasn’t anything of materiality in the presentation or the questions that wasn’t addressed in the RNS but some factors were given a bit more detail. 

The fact that Touchstone is in a very strong position is in no doubt and is rapidly becoming the full cycle onshore E&P company in Trinidad that it has recently confirmed. Although there have been some delays in the last few months, in operational matters and via strategy this has been a phenomenal success story and the jigsaw pieces are falling into place.

As the production profile starts to gear up on the back of the start-up of Cascadura, operating cash flow is growing but clearly not at the cost of overloading short term production when early stage gas prices are lower while initiation takes place. I see no reason why the significant and highly robust domestic demand cannot be to a great deal covered by increasing production at the field. 

Indeed it is not just Cascadura that is part of the portfolio as of course the existing properties as well as that from Coho will add to that production from the many development and indeed exploration locations in the portfolio. The answer from yesterday’s presentation indicated that Touchstone has the infrastructure and capacity to have those existing operations completed by the end of this year and then accelerate through 2024.

As TXP grows and with cautious responsibility it will boost revenue and in due course be in a significant position to be the market leader in the country and I wouldn’t bet against expansion of the asset base either organically or even via M&A activity in coming years. I have said before that Touchstone would be a serious candidate for share of the year, that has been moved to the right for good reasons and this company is going to look in very good condition as we go into 2024.

And finally…