WTI (Aug) $76.89 +$1.14, Brent (Sep) $81.36 +$1.25, Diff -$4.47 +11c.

USNG (Aug) $2.55 -8c,  UKNG (Aug) 65.0p -2.0p, TTF (Aug) €27.215 +€0.57.

Oil price

Oil will likely end the week up around three dollars, yesterday in the US the wholesale prices franked the CPI data coming in below the whisper of 0.4% at 0.1%. This has increased the chance of the July rate hike being the last, at least for the time being with most people saying another rise is only about a 20% chance for the time being. It has also meant quite significant dollar weakness which can only add to the oil price strength.

The EIA report was followed by the Opec equivalent and they trimmed ’23 demand by 60/- barrels whilst increasing ’24 demand by 2.2%, some fossil fuel crisis huh? This was followed by the IEA usually wide of the mark and this time seeing 2H ’23 demand slowing by 250/- b/d due to economic recovery faltering…

Finally there are a couple of physical flashpoints in Africa, political tension in Libya has resurfaced and the two shut-in fields account for some 250/- b/d lost and the leak at Forcados has seen Shell cutting Nigerian production by around 220/- b/d.

All of this shows some short term strength along with longer term call on Opec, indeed all three agencies see a big call on Opec in 2H ’23, unsurprisingly the EIA have the biggest call. 

Kosmos/Tullow

Kosmos, alongside its joint venture partners Tullow Oil plc (operator), Ghana National Petroleum Corporation and Petro SA is pleased to announce the successful start-up of the Jubilee South East (JSE) project, offshore Ghana.

The first JSE production well has been brought onstream with a second JSE production well expected onstream this month. These two wells are expected to take Jubilee production to over 100,000 bopd gross. An additional production well and water injection well are expected online later this year, which should further enhance production.

The partnership plans to maintain this increased level of production at Jubilee over the next few years through an ongoing infill drilling program. The partnership has identified multiple future drilling locations and is focused on high-grading these opportunities to further extend the plateau and realize the full potential of the significant Jubilee resource base.

As the operator notes in its press release today, the partnership has invested c. $1 billion over the last three years on the JSE project to drill wells and install the infrastructure needed to bring previously undeveloped reserves to production. The project has advanced the use of local suppliers and the majority of the complex offshore infrastructure has been fabricated by local companies in Ghana with more than 90% local workforce. This demonstrates the evolution of the Ghanaian supplier base that can now support substantial elements of its oil and gas industry and is testament to the partnership’s commitment to developing local capacity.

Commenting on the start-up of the Jubilee South East project, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Andrew G. Inglis said:

“This is a significant milestone for Ghana and for the partnership, with growing production expected to drive higher revenues for the country and partners for years to come. Delivery of Jubilee South East is the first of three major growth projects for Kosmos. This catalyst represents the inflection point of rising production and lower capital that we expect will flow through 2H23 into 2024. We believe Jubilee has the potential to deliver in excess of a billion barrels of oil equivalent gross, generating material value for the people of Ghana, the partnership and our investors.”

This is very good news for both companies although Tullow certainly needs it much more than Kosmos does. With oil prices seemingly stable around these levels it is welcome revenue and with more to come. 

And finally…

The T20 finals day is tomorrow, one of the most fun days of the year, shame the forecast is so poor. First up Essex play Hampshire and then Surrey play Somerset to decide the final in the evening.

Over the pond Major League Cricket has started and seems to have a reasonable tail wind and with the money on offer they have signed most of the specialists from around the world, Surrey for example have lost Narine and Roy for the tournament.

Racing is from Newmarket where the July Cup is the feature but also a decent card at Ascot and John Smiths Cup day at York.

Wimbledon is grinding to an end, even Djoko thinks he’s a slam dunk.

And I forgot last week the the Southern hemisphere rugby Championship is underway. With the Boks thrashing the Wallabies 43-12 and the All Blacks winning 12-41 at the Pumas tomorrow’s fixtures are crucial, its the All Blacks v the Boks at 0805 BST and later the Wallabies take on the Pumas at 1045. Great viewing for Saturday morning…