WTI (Nov) $85.46 -15c, Brent (Dec) $91.62 -1c, Diff -$6.16 +14c.

USNG (Nov) $5.99 -46c, UKNG (Nov) 218.55p -18.45p, TTF €122.0 -€12.49.

Oil price

Not much to add to a quiet day in the oil market where the same old, same old influences left the market virtually unchanged. With Iran allegedly supplying Russia with weapons for use in Ukraine the chances of a deal are less likely…

Retail gasoline prices in the US were down a touch, -4.1c w/w, -21c m/m and up 54.9c y/y.

Ithaca Energy

Ithaca Energy Announces Intention to Publish a Registration Document and Expected Intention to Float on the London Stock Exchange

  • Ithaca Energy is a leading UK independent exploration and production company, operating the majority of its 2P reserves and 2C resources
  • Ithaca Energy has a balanced portfolio between oil and gas assets, with gas representing c. 35% of production in the first nine months of 2022
  • Ithaca Energy achieved this market positioning through a combination of organic growth and value-accretive acquisitions
  • Ithaca Energy has a track record of material value creation, delivering a 5.4x increase in equity value between 2018 and 30 June 2022
  • Ithaca Energy has access to flagship assets, with stakes in six of the top ten largest fields in the UKCS, including the two largest undeveloped discoveries, Cambo and Rosebank, to drive organic growth
  • Ithaca Energy’s goal is to continue to increase value while generating attractive and sustainable shareholder distributions
  • Ithaca Energy will seek to achieve outstanding performance through operational excellence, maintaining financial discipline, appropriately incorporating an ESG mindset to achieve net zero by 2040 and by employing an industry leading workforce, while always maintaining a staunch focus on safety
  • Ithaca Energy’s ambition is to become a key player in providing energy security to the UK

Ithaca Energy, a leading UK independent exploration and production company focused on the UK North Sea, is pleased to announce that it intends to publish today a Registration Document and is considering proceeding with an initial public offering. Ithaca Energy is considering applying for admission of its ordinary shares to the premium listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the main market for listed securities of the London Stock Exchange.

  • Ithaca Energy has significant scale: as at 30 June 2022, Ithaca Energy had 2P reserves of 244 mmboe, aggregate 2C contingent resources of 302 mmboe and delivered a reserves replacement ratio of c. 230% over the period from 1 January 2019 to 30 June 2022. The Company believes that it has sufficient development opportunities within its portfolio to enable production to be increased to over 100 kboe/d in the medium-term.
  • Ithaca Energy has significant control and flexibility over its strategic, operational and financial priorities: Ithaca Energy’s portfolio consists of 28 producing field interests in the UKCS, of which Ithaca Energy is the operator of eight fields, which account for the majority (c. 63%) of the Group’s 2P reserves and 2C resources, as at 30 June 2022.
  • Ithaca Energy has delivered robust financial performance: during the six months ended 30 June 2022, Ithaca Energy’s average daily production (oil and gas) on a net working interest basis was c. 66.7 kboe/d, the Group’s revenue was c. $1,338 million, Adjusted EBITDAX was c. $907 million, profit after tax was c. $1,558 million, and the Group had net cash from operating activities of $989 million. For the six months ended 31 December 2022, the Group’s management estimate average daily production (oil and gas) on a net working interest basis to be c. 76-81 kboe/d.
  • Ithaca Energy has seen a period of significant M&A driven growth centred upon two transformational acquisitions: the acquisitions of Chevron’s portfolio in the UKCS and Siccar Point Energy (“Siccar Point”) gave the Group stakes in six of the top ten largest oil and gas fields in the UKCS, including Cambo and Rosebank, two of the largest undeveloped discoveries in the UKCS. These transformational acquisitions also provided Ithaca Energy with a material, long-life resource base with the second largest resource base of independent oil and gas companies in the UKCS.
  • Ithaca Energy’s strategy is centred on increasing value while generating attractive and sustainable shareholder distributions: to execute on this, Ithaca Energy will focus on (i) building projects with strong economics which provide resilience to the portfolio through the commodity price cycle; (ii) boosting existing assets by maximising recovery, improving efficiency, emphasising cost control and driving digitalisation; and (iii) buying value accretive assets across the asset lifecycle. Ithaca Energy is targeting annualised dividends of 15-30% of post-tax net cash from operating activities through the cycle. In the near-term, the Group has a firm expectation of paying a dividend in 2023 of $400 million with an ambition of an annual dividend of $420 million in 2024.
  • Ithaca Energy’s ambition is to have one of the lowest carbon emission portfolios in the UKCS: the Group has set a goal of reducing its combined Scope 1 and Scope 2 CO2 and CO2 equivalent emissions from operated assets by 25%, based on 2019 levels, by 2025, which is greater than current North Sea Transition Deal (“NSTD”) commitments. The Group is also committed to achieving net zero by 2040 on a net equity basis, 10 years ahead of NSTD commitments.
  • Ithaca Energy plays an important role in UK energy security, a key focus of the UK Government: Ithaca Energy intends to utilise its significant reserves and operational capabilities to play a key role in delivering security of domestic energy supply from the UKCS. The Company’s management believes that its strategy is in line with the UK Government’s energy security strategy to maximise economic recovery of the UKCS as part of reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels. This will include Ithaca Energy’s operatorship of Cambo, one of the largest pre-FID projects in the UKCS and one of only five oil and gas projects highlighted for accelerated progress in the UK Government’s recently announced Growth Plan 2022.

Gilad Myerson, Executive Chairman of Ithaca Energy, said:

“I am incredibly proud of the transformation Ithaca Energy has undergone over the past three years to become one of the UK’s leading independent oil and gas companies. Following the Siccar Point acquisition, Ithaca Energy now has material scale and portfolio longevity, with significant growth opportunities.

Our strategy is simple – by buying, building and boosting assets we aim to increase value while generating attractive and sustainable returns to shareholders. Our track record of value creation is exceptionally strong and we have a deeply experienced team in place who will continue to deliver.

Our strategy is aligned with the UK Government’s Energy Security Strategy and we are proud to be investing in the UK at a time when domestic energy security could not be more important.  

I am very excited for what lies ahead and to welcome new shareholders on board as we continue our journey in the public markets.”

Alan Bruce, Chief Executive Officer of Ithaca Energy, said:

“With the opportunities we have ahead of us, there has never been a more exciting time to be leading Ithaca Energy. 

Our mission is to help meet the energy needs of the UK while operating in a sustainable manner. Our goal is to maximise value through the safe, efficient and responsible development and production of our assets.

Our people are core to everything we do and their safety is my number one priority. I would like to thank them all for their continued hard work and ongoing commitment to the business.”

Idan Wallace, Chief Executive Officer of Delek Group Ltd. (“Delek”), said:

“Delek has invested a large amount of capital in Ithaca Energy since we acquired it in 2017, delivering significant value for our shareholders.

A London listing is the natural next step, allowing Ithaca Energy to flourish as an independent company with its own capital allocation policy and the potential to generate substantial value for all its shareholders.

I am proud of the work the Ithaca Energy team has done and Delek looks forward to supporting Ithaca Energy as a long-term shareholder.”

Genel Energy

Genel has announced that all payments have now been received from the Kurdistan Regional Government relating to oil sales during June 2022.

Genel’s share of those payments is as follows:

(all figures $ million)Payment
Tawke24.6
Tawke override15.5
Taq Taq2.8
Sarta2.8
Receivable recovery13.5
Total59.2

 

Genel was owed $120 million, excluding interest, for deferred receivables from the KRG for oil sales from November 2019 to February 2020, and has now received $117 million. In addition, the override was suspended from March to December 2020, which would have earned Genel $38 million.

Further strengthening of the Genel finances as they receive more deferred receivables from the KRG, still the override suspension leaves some $38m owed in addition. 

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

Gulf Keystone confirms that a gross payment of $64.8 million ($50.7 million net to GKP) has been received from the Kurdistan Regional Government for Shaikan crude oil sales during June 2022.

‘Nuff said’ I guess...

Trinity Exploration & Production

Trinity has announced that on 17 October 2022 it purchased 57,000 of its ordinary shares of USD 0.01 each, at an average price of 138 pence per Ordinary Share, pursuant to instructions issued by Trinity as part of its share buyback programme, as announced on 20 September 2022.

Aggregated information on Ordinary Shares purchased according to trading value

Date of purchase

Number of Ordinary Shares purchased

Highest price paid (GBp)

Lowest price paid (GBp)

Volume weighted average price paid per share (GBp)

Venue

17 Oct 2022

57,000

1.38

1.38

1.38

AIM

 

To date, Trinity has purchased 672,000 Ordinary Shares in aggregate in connection with this share buyback programme. Trinity intends to hold the purchased Ordinary Shares in treasury.

Transaction details

In accordance with Article 5(1)(b) of the Market Abuse Regulation (EU) No 596/2014, as it forms part of Retained EU Law as defined in the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, a full breakdown of the individual purchases of Ordinary Shares made by Cenkos, on behalf of the Company as part of the share buy-back programme, is detailed below.

Number of Ordinary Shares purchased

Transaction price (GBp)

Time of Transaction

Trading Venue

57,000

1.38

12:13

AIM

 

Completion of buyback programme

Following the above transaction, Trinity has purchased approximately USD 1 million of Ordinary Shares in line with its announcement of 20 September 2022 and consequently this buyback programme has been completed.

So, the end of the buy-back and the shares have risen from 90p to the recent high of 140p and today’s 126p, so the operation can be certainly be seen to have been a success. What happens now will be the proof of the pudding. 

Southern Energy Corp

I had the good fortune to spend a good deal of time yesterday with the senior management of Southern Energy, a stock that I have watched closely since its arrival in London just over a year ago. The recent financing, conducted in both Canada and the UK gives the company a strong, supportive shareholder base of both institutions and retail investors. 

This leaves Southern well financed and enables the acceleration of the organic growth programme in the prolific Gwinville area in Mississippi which with most kit already procured is ready for a 15 well programme able to start as soon as November. The financing added to the hedge-free lending facility of $35m of which only $5m has been drawn. 

With strong existing production meaning that a significant increase is on the cards, after the initial fully funded wells come onstream cash flow will come swiftly and the company will be headed towards its target of 25,000 boe/d. Added to this production comes one of the company’s big advantages which is its highly competitive gas pricing model, the premium achieved to Henry Hub through selling via the Transco Zone 4 hub is significantly more profitable. 

The management are in the process of creating significant shareholder value with the organic growth from the extensive portfolio with little of no exploration risk harming the exceptional economic metrics with deliver dynamic growth. In addition non-organic options are provided by the use of discounted PDP valuation models which again add yet more growth potential. 

Southern have already, and are continuing to develop the extensive asset base in the Gwinville in the portfolio which will be the subject of the big drilling campaign lasting at least until next summer. However, this isn’t the only part of the asset base and whilst it offers significant upside from a number of formations the company has massive opportunities elsewhere in Mississippi as well. 

Southern is a very exciting company, with previous operators having de-risked the asset base having put in huge investment in drilling areas leaving the company able to spend almost all its free cash flow on drilling wells. The company is better placed that most to be re-rated in line with the value of much bigger companies in the sector with its high quality management. As this dynamism manifests itself in the share price I expect this re-rating to mean that the above average long term growth opportunities for the company get me to a Target Price of some 150p. 

And finally… 

The T20 World Cup group qualifying is under way and yesterday Scotland beat the West Indies by 42 runs…

In the warm-ups for those already through to the later stages England beat Pakistan, India beat Australia, South Africa beat New Zealand and Afghanistan beat the Bangers.