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The Bucket List 2022
I published the ‘results’ of the 2021 Bucket List on 22/12/2021 which were I thought satisfactory. Of the 21 stocks 13 were in positive territory, 7 were down and 1 remained suspended. Whilst all that is history almost all of them remain in the list for this year, as you know I am a long term player and in most cases the reasons for me expecting them to return above the norm are still in place.
Whilst there is a very good quality ‘bench’ of companies waiting to come into the list I think that is a good thing and there are plenty of readers out there who regularly spend time recommending stocks to me and I welcome this and try and make contact and meet with them if I can.
One of the new entries this time around is Advance Energy which is seeking growth through acquisition or farm-in to non-operated interests in discovered upstream projects. Right now that project is the Buffalo-10 well being drilled offshore Timor-Leste. The well is being drilled to test for the presence of commercial quantities of high-quality light oil that is expected to lead to the early re-development of the Buffalo field. ADV will slip into the High Beta section of the List, not particularly because the well is a huge wildcat but this well needs to be right at which time prescient investors will, I think, do very well.
The second new entry is Orcadian Energy which will slip into the UK Stocks list and is another relative new kid on the block, the team here is very strong indeed and the management have a very large piece of skin in the game. I see ORCA as joining the companies that are making progress in the North Sea with low emissions plays and net zero credentials. ORCA has a substantial reserves base, assessed by Sproule and for a company of this stage this is very unusual, it has finalised its Concept Select process and moved to the ‘authorisation phase’ for the flagship Pilot development for which it has already won funding of £466,667 in the OGA Electrification Competition. Looking ahead there will be demands such as the funding of such a big development and of course this will be helped by the fact that they are already looking at FPSO requirements.
These two stocks replace President Energy and Challenger Energy Group from last year, the former at long last delivered and was up 62.7% placing it in 7th in the list and could now do without the burden of my continued support but which it still has! I chose Challenger as Bahamas Petroleum ahead of the drilling of Perseverance-1 and hence its appearance in the High Beta section of the list, the result speaks for itself but there must always be high risk plays in these portfolios in my view. Actually given the work that Challenger CEO Eytan Uliel is doing already on the cost base and the portfolio I was severely tempted to stick with it but I think best to reappear from the subs bench.
Others on the subs bench are very close to admission, Pharos has real scope in Vietnam and presses Jadestone which needs to keep its strength going in that geography and I am expecting exciting things from Afentra in Africa before long. Sound keeps making moves in Morocco, VOG in Cameroon and back to high beta will Empyrean come in at the Jade prospect?
So the new Bucket List for 2022 with prices as at 1/1/2022 looks like this.
UK Stocks
Jersey Oil & Gas
Serica Energy
IOG
Union Jack Oil
Orcadian Energy
International Stocks
Jadestone Energy
PetroTal Corp
Touchstone Exploration
Savannah Energy
Predator Oil & Gas
Scirocco Energy
Chariot
Yield plays
Diversified Energy Company
Genel Energy
Wentworth Resources
San Leon Energy
High Beta stocks
Kistos
Longboat Energy
Zephyr Energy
Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas
Advance Energy
2021 Bucket List – A reminder
- Zephyr Energy +911.4%
- Kistos +300.1%
- IOG +268.3%
- Serica +253.3%
- PetroTal Corp +202.3%
- Predator Oil & Gas +72.1%
- President Energy +62.7%
- Jadestone Energy +50.5%
- Wentworth Resources +36.2%
- Savannah Energy +29.8%
- Jersey Oil & Gas +16.2%
- Diversified Energy Company +3.68%
- Genel Energy 0%
- Touchstone Exploration -5.1%
- Chariot -8%
- Longboat -13.9%
- Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas -15.4%
- Scirocco Energy -18.6%
- Union Jack Oil -47.0%
- BPC/Challenger Energy Group
San Leon remains suspended but will be slotted in if appropriate when it returns.
2 Interviews about the Bucket list below:
Flagstaff TV: Malcolm’s Stock Bucket List 2021
IG Outlook 2022: UK small cap oil
E&OE Malcy January 2022…
Thanks Malcy for being one of the few Financial Journalists for giving an unbiased level headed opinions. I am a UJO shareholder so particularly interested in what you have to say there—contrary to two others I could mention!! Thanks very much. Mike Warrington
Hi Mike, thank you for your kind comments.
HNY
Malcy
Dear Mr Graham-Wood,
thank you so much for this very useful blog, also for novice public.
Pantheon: i bought shares due to very helpful tweeter contrarian8888, whose other insights have been wonderful.
However, i am hedging now and bought Jadestone Energy and PetroTal shares too.
Do have a look at Canadian Baytex Energy.
Greetings
Good afternoon and HNY Malcolm .
I saw you at the Chariot presentation but I had to dash off before the vino commenced .
Well done on the 2021 bucket list .
My addition which I have had a “large “ punt on is Petrofac. The CEO Sam will do the business in my opinion . £3 target autumn 2023 .
Joe
Hi Joe
Sorry not to see you at the Chariot do, what a good evening that was and how high could the shares go? I totally agree with you on Petrofac, I know the stock very well, have been on pretty much all the company visits etc. There is so much upside, the energy market is growing fast, PFC will grow faster after regaining certain markets and they have scope for a big bounce.
Kind regards
Malcy
I note you consistently leave out PANR from your blog. Are you not a fan of the management or is there something else that puts you off? I’d love a briefing if there is because I have shares in my portfolio.
Hi John
Here is the same message i sent elsewhere in case you hadnt seen it.
Thanks for your message, you are not the only one who asks about this especially as the post code they are in and the upside there is clear and ive done work on it. I guess that there are a couple of major reasons why I can’t recommend it, firstly is your point about Texas where I was taken in by the company and still kick myself for believing the story and all the guff that came with it. They even had a dying partner to blame. The other thing is the deal that they did to get into this acreage, the financing appeared to be odd and there was even a hedge fund involved which I could never find out enough about.
I have had a couple of long meetings with the company and whilst i have not met all of them and Jay is keeping away from London investors they have worked very hard to make me understand the potential.
Overall I guess its a trust thing and I am just steering clear but i havent put people off!
What’s your predictions for Sound Energy Malay. Surprised not to see them on your latest bucket list?!!
Meant Malcy (apologies)
Hi Al
I’m very positive indeed about Sound and nearly had them in for last year where they are up over 50%. I know Graham Lyon very well and over the last few months he has been quietly working away so i knew i was ok to write it up but also know he didnt want a fuss made. So read into that and they would be in the list!!
Kind regards
Malcy
Hi Malcy,
Could you tell me why you have not included PANR, Pantheon resources, in your high beta 2022 bucket list?
I have been a private investor subscriber of yours for many years, and remember your keen approach to them over their gas find in Texas which made me jump on the bandwagon! I have bailed myself out of that one in the last year as a result of the hype over the North Slope activity and have now a smaller but significant for me position awaiting the next three months results and am wondering whether I will be in the frying pan as opposed to the fire.
Your view would be helpful.
Roger
Hi Roger
Thanks for your message, you are not the only one who asks about this especially as the post code they are in and the upside there is clear and ive done work on it. I guess that there are a couple of major reasons why I can’t recommend it, firstly is your point about Texas where I was taken in by the company and still kick myself for believing the story and all the guff that came with it. They even had a dying partner to blame. The other thing is the deal that they did to get into this acreage, the financing appeared to be odd and there was even a hedge fund involved which I could never find out enough about.
I have had a couple of long meetings with the company and whilst i have not met all of them and Jay is keeping away from London investors they have worked very hard to make me understand the potential.
Overall I guess its a trust thing and I am just steering clear but i havent put people off!
Kind regards
Malcy
Hi Malcy
What are your thoughts on Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL)? At the time of your list, I don’t think their recent big discovery hadn’t been announced. If it had, would you have included it?
Hi Jeff
I dont cover COPL, i looked at it some time ago before the current position was established. It looks like a good find and I am keeping an eye on it, lets hope the IR make some meetings!
Kind regards
Malcolm
Hi Malcy,
Any reason you don’t have oilex(oex) on your bucket list?
100% ownership of Cambay (India) in the next few weeks.
Recently funded to refrac the Cambay Well 77H
Gas production to restart at Cambay gas field.
Potential of 4 to 6tcf of gas in Cambay alone.
Look what Roland Wessel did with Star Energy.
Would love some feedback or thoughts on oilex.
Kind regards.
Tom
Hi Malcy,
What do you make of the Advance debacle? Like you I was impressed with Leslie. I believed the story but have taken a very substantial hit in part taken un by the niaive comments from the CEO about it being almost unimaginable that there would not be a commercial discovery.
As a interviewer do you think you could have done more to constrain his enthusiasm and highlight the risks?
Anyway more pertinanetly from your discussions with Advance do you think there is anyway back no that would not mean massive shareholder diluation?
Hi John
Really tricky and I’m still in shock, god knows what they must be thinking. I liked him too and as you can see in the interview i did with him he was genuine and believed the story. BUT and i have been in the sector for over 40 years, things like this do happen, BP spent over a billion $ in the 1980’s building an island in Alaska for a dead cert dry hole and I’m sure you can think of a few more.
As to my technique I certainly didnt ask the one question that was needed, ie how solid is your 86% chance of Success and what are the risks?
They tell me that they have a lot of prospects to look at but we may not see them for a little while.
My own problem is that they are fresh in the Bucket List and this was meant to be a big winner, normally if something goes wrong i say that the shares are so far down i might as well keep them, right now I have to say I’m toying with cutting the position.
I hope that this helps
Kind regards
Malcy