WTI $64.01 -$1.04, Brent $67.57 -72c, Diff -$3.51 +32c, NG $2.66 n/c, UKNG 43.5p +2.1p

Oil price

Oil came off a bit yesterday started by the EIA report which trimmed its forecasts for global demand for oil this year, fortunately since they change their numbers so often they lack credibility and flew in the face of the OECD report. In this there were wholescale increases in GDP numbers which will surely lead to increased demand for oil. This morning oil has rallied given the overall situation hasn’t changed.

In their report World GDP growth was upped to 5.6% (Dec f/c 4.2%) with the USA now a huge +6.5% ( 3.2%) with the UK at +5.6% (4.2%). Now clearly economists work slowly and forecasts tend to be cautious so the rise they are predicting now are ones which that many in the oil market saw in December…

After hours the API inventory stats were, as predicted, a total mess and are best avoided for any sensible calcs, crude oil rose 12.8m barrels vs guess of nil and of course gasoline and distillates drew by 8.5m and 4.8m respectively. The time to worry about gasoline is not now, the market needs to settle and those punters taking their money off the gasoline table should be warned about that bet right now.

Genel Energy

Genel announces that payments have been received from the Kurdistan Regional Government for oil sales during January 2021. Genel’s share of those payments is,

Tawke $10.9m,

Tawke override $6.5m,

Taq Taq $2.6m,

Sarta $1.5m,

Receivable recovery $2.4m,

Total $23.9m

Under the Tawke override payment mechanism, Genel receives 4.5% of monthly Tawke gross field revenues.

The receivable recovery payment relates to unpaid invoices from 2019 and 2020. For each cent above a monthly dated Brent average of $50/bbl, 0.5 cent per paying interest barrel produced will be paid towards monies owed.

Not included in the table is a receipt of $2.4 million (Genel share) relating to December sales, which was received in February and consequently not included in our reported January receipts.

These figures are by their very nature copied directly from the RNS, however it is worth noting that whilst the payments from the KRG can occasionally be intermittent for domestic reasons, they do even out over the long term. Genel’s strong and flexible financial position is able to cope with such diversions and make the shares very attractive to own with both capital and income opportunities.

Aminex

A Ruvuma operational update from APT the new operators and where Aminex is carried for its share of the associated field development costs up to $35 million, ‘equivalent to gross development expenditure of $140 million’.

The joint venture partners agree that the acquisition of a high-resolution 3D seismic survey is of primary importance for the preparation of the Field Development Plan. The new seismic will also deliver information that will be helpful in the final planning of the Chikumbi-1 well and the location of any subsequent development wells.

APT has presented both the joint venture partners and the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation with a revised schedule showing seismic acquisition taking place over 480 km² during the second and third quarter of 2021 with processing being completed thereafter. APT is in the process of awarding the initial contracts for the new high-resolution 3D seismic.

The Chikumbi-1 well is planned to spud in early 2022 with mobilisation of the rig and other services planned for the second half of 2021. The Chikumbi-1 well has been designed to reach a total depth of 3,485 metres targeting both the proven Cretaceous gas reservoir and a deeper Jurassic exploration prospect. Assuming a successful outcome with the forthcoming Chikumbi-1 well, first gas from the project is anticipated to occur in September 2024.

Charles Santos, Executive Chairman, of Aminex commented:

“The Aminex Board is delighted that activity on the ground in Tanzania is finally taking concrete form and moving us closer to establishing the Field Development Plan whilst enabling the final planning of the Chikumbi-1 well and assist with the location of subsequent wells.”

And finally…

Tonight it is the Champions League and Liverpool will hope that they can put their domestic form behind them as they host RB Leipzig whom they have beaten already this season.

In the Prem the Noisy Neighbours host the Saints.