Oil price, Amerisur, Trinity, JOG, Reabold, Zenith, BPC – And finally…
WTI $53.55 +96c, Brent $59.10 +78c, Diff -$5.55 -18c, NG $2.22 -2c
One way or another, apart from trade wars, world GDP and the Middle East nothing else is moving oil and even these three aren’t doing much. Yesterday at the Oil and Money conference the Opec Secretary said that Opec would ‘take action to further balance the market’ although current supply is doing that quite well, it needs to as the Opec report again showed demand weakening albeit slowly.
President Putin is visiting the KSA on Monday so the grandest of grand fromages will meet to discuss oil, amongst other things. It is also Columbus Day on Monday in the US and some markets will close and oil data will be delayed.
An update of the FSP from AMER where they seem to be looking for buyers for the whole business rather than a break up and sale of part of the portfolio. They must have a view on whether potential bidders are coming from as they have told them to have pockets full of moolah. Should bode well for shareholders although i’m surprised that a piecemeal approach hasn’t added to the value.
Trinity Exploration & Production
Trinity are updating on the T&T budget statement this morning where the Government gives and takes away, overall it is slightly negative. In SPT an increase in the ITC to 25% helps capex to offset SPT whereas changes in capital allowances to a straight line basis are mildly unhelpful as is the PPT relief reduction from 100% to 75% is also a small negative.
Whilst the sum of these things are basically neither here nor there is must have the possible bonus of making the Government realise quite how radical changes to the tax regime are necessary. Elsewhere business at TRIN appears to be going very well where they are controlling what they can and not those things they can’t. These include a couple of recent shares sales which have hindered any positive news. I remain confident that Trinity will in due course get much closer to the valuation it deserves.
Jersey Oil & Gas
On Tuesday JOG held their first Capital Markets Day which was highly successful., a room full of analysts and shareholders who appreciated a very solid presentation. I can strongly recommend going to the website and flicking through the new presentation which is most impressive. One could do this while watching the link below, the day after the event I managed to get CEO Andrew Benitz into Core Finance where he did my CEO interview slot.
Its been a busy week straight after the visit to Kurdistan which I am writing up and will publish notes before long. I notice that Reabold has made a big raise in order to buy more of West Newton and Parta, when I get to speak to the company I will write more but just as I said, RBD could be a buyer or a seller at West Newton, at this price they are rightly a buyer. Zenith announced on Wednesday that their c-37 well at the Jafarli field (which I have visited) flowed at 285 bopd on test, a good deal higher than provisionally expected. Finally how do you solve a problem like Bahamas? On the 3rd of October after a rancorous roadshow the company said ‘the company wishes to confirm that it has no immediate intentions of undertaking an equity placing to institutional investors’ and that ‘the current share price (2p) materially undervalues the project’. Indeed in an interview with me the company said that they had G&A until the spring and only needed ‘visibility’ of further funds…Yesterday’s Open Offer (at 2p…) certainly ‘quells equity placing speculation’ (!)and those in the offer at 2p will indeed get stock at a price that ‘materially undervalues the project’. The company now has a finite timeline, drill in April and at such a time will fortunes be made or lost, it has been an interesting few years for BPC shareholders but will it be rewarding?
The weather in Japan may or may not decide a number of sporting events at the weekend. England v France is already off giving a few days break for England before the Australia game and France v Wales. For Scotland, who need to beat Japan and by a margin the weather gods may frown upon them if that is cancelled.
For the F1 GP in Japan qualifying has already been moved to Sunday, if that doesnt happen the grid will form up as per the last testing which had Mercedes 1&2, Verstappen 3 and Vettel and Chas in 4&5.
In the Euro qualifiers England are at the Czech Republic tonight, last night Scotland and Northern Ireland lost and Wales drew. Scotland have San Marino at home on Sunday afternoon.