WTI $59.38 +$1.55, Brent $66.49 +$1.44, Diff -$7.11, NG $2.29 -2c
A whopper of a day for oil again yesterday with inventory data at long last doing what it should do at this time of the year plus signs of all those money managers who liquidated long positions scrabbling back into the market.
Crude stocks fell buy a massive 12.8m barrels and with gasoline falling 1m b’s and distillates down 2.44m refineries were run off their feet at a utilisation rate of 94.2%. This is the biggest fall since September 2016 and with increased exports and, as predicted here only last week, increased gasoline demand the market was completely wrong-footed.
An AGM statement this morning from President where ‘the process of building a major South American business is well underway’. As previously discussed 2018 was a year of real progress with production, reserves and profits all increasing substantially and free cash flow from Argentina continues to grow. Indeed in the first five months of this year the FCF is already over $12m.
The $50m ongoing work programme for 2019/20 is aimed at delivering a 50% exit production rate y/y and production at the end of this year is still guided at 4,900 b/d (3,300). I think that probably the most significant news in this statement is that the company, at no extra cost to themselves, have reunified the Puesto Flores/Estancia Vieja concession which is of highly strategic importance to the company particularly the pan-regional gas pipeline and the consolidation of that part of the business.
Elsewhere good progress is being made on the gas strategy overall with work on the Las Bases plant moving on and the company expects it to be recommissioned by the year end or shortly after. With a host of new wells across the portfolio all ready to drill with more units than ever in operation the outlook for President looks most exciting, indeed even Paraguay is stepping up and the news from Louisiana is also positive.
IGas have announced the preliminary results of the Springs Road well in North Nottinghamshire which are ‘highly encouraging’ and a ‘significant step forward’ in the development of shale gas in the East Midlands with the indication of a significant hydrocarbon reserve having been found. With a favourable characterisation of the results to the USA areas such as the Permian and the Marcellus shales the potential is huge. The company say that they will release more data in the 3rd quarter.
Premier has announced a significant increase in the Zama field resource estimate which is now 670-810-970 on a P90-P50-P10 basis.
An AGM statement from Serica today which is merely to inform that net production ytd is 30,500 boe/d and that guidance for the year is 26-30,700 boe/d. Cash of $112.3m and whilst realisations have inevitably fallen so have opex costs and the outlook for Serica is one of the best in the sector.
A trading update from Hunting today which is in-line with management expectations. Titan is performing in-line after some cost and inventory reductions early in the year paid off with new, higher cost kit and technologies being rolled out in the 2nd Q. US overall was ahead of expectations, Canada remains poor but the EMEA is on the mend and the Asia-Pacific region saw an increase in activity.
A slightly confusing statement from Wentworth, I really must make an attempt to catch up. It appears that the production ytd is down due to increased competition from hydro-electric power and whilst that is now looking better it means that FY guidance is reduced from 75-85 MMcfd to 60-75 MMcfd. Payments are coming through which should mean elimination of debt by year-end.
Tonight England’s women play Norway in the World Cup quarter final in France.
And with Pakistan beating New Zealand yesterday England’s cricketers job just got a whole lot more difficult.