WTI $52.59 +91c, Brent $61.67 +$1.04, Diff -$9.08 +13c, NG $2.32 -5c
Was yesterday’s rally one of relief, technical or of the dead cat bounce variety? With the Mexican tariffs due to start on Monday markets were relived to hear that talks between the two sides had resumed and there may be a delay although I personally wouldn’t hold my breath. Technical certainly but with no degree of evidence that the charts are showing us much as the moment, dead cat is also high on the list of chances.
Actually what moved the price yesterday was that for the second day running the Saudis and the Russians held tight to the party line of production restrictions. Whether that continues through the July Opec+ meeting still remains to be seen but at the moment it proves that the market is swaying to the tune of the tariff man and global economic fears and not the imminent shortage of supply from Opec. Finally it is the SPIEF Forum in St Petersburg and taking a quick look at the attendees all the usual bums are on seats ready for a bit of grovelling between lectures…
Anglo African Oil & Gas
The company today announce that the Tilapia CPR has been ‘paused’ while further data is acquired but disappointingly it seems that Senergy has stopped on the work. In the meantime the company is replacing it with a CPI from another provider and also running with the Schlumberger in-house analysis with which they are ‘very encouraged’. The good news is that production from the Djeno continues although no volumes are provided and less good news is that the CPR might involve a long wait so mixed news overall.
A very positive upgrade in Alkaid resources from Pantheon yesterday as they reveal that Alkaid and Phecda are now considered to be part of the same structural accumulation and that Phecda is now deemed to be appraisal. As a result the OIP is upgraded by a substantial 50% to 900 mmbo of P50 resources. It also enhances the recovery factor, modestly raised here from 10% to 10-15% but less modestly the indication is that it might be as high as 40%.
With first oil expected in 2021 and a farm-out process now under way with the data room now open shareholder might be excused for thinking that at long last Pantheon is delivering the goods. I am looking forward to meeting with the company in early July.
A slew of announcements from the OGA who have announced the UK 31st offshore licencing round with 144 new blocks awarded.
Reabold announce that as a 32.9% owner of Corallian Energy they are vicariously owners of 5 new licences, 22 new blocks which have been offered including blocks around the Colter discovery where they can ‘realise further potential in the area’.
Upland announce that they have been offered 40% in each of seven blocks and part blocks in the Inner Moray Firth in the UKCS, ironically with the above mentioned Corallian Energy. The Innovate licence approach means that ‘initial work commitments are not costly’ and that Corallian’s resource estimates ‘speak for themselves’.
United Oil & Gas
And UOG get 100% of 4 blocks in the UK North Sea and 10% of 2 blocks adjacent to Colter which is contiguous with their 10% interest in the Colter licence which contains the Ballard Point discovery and the eastern portion of the Colter South discovery. Also see the Reabold comments on Colter which we might see a bit more of.
Yesterday I was able to interview Dr J.J. Traynor, CFO of Sound Energy, he gives me an update on Morocco and the process that the company is going through at the moment.
England lost another football semi-final last night after some comedic defence play gifted the Netherlands the match with two colossal blunders.
Konta lost her semi-final too, losing in straight sets to Czech wonder girl Marketa Vondrousova in Paris today.
Sunday evening sees the Canadian GP, will this be the Ferrari chance to shine?
In the CWC yesterday the Windies showed their weakness as twice in the game they had the Aussies on the rack but still contrived to lose. This weekend sees Pakistan v Sri Lanka today, England v Bangladesh and Afghanistan v New Zealand tomorrow and India v Australia the highlight on Sunday, might see you there…