Aminex,Genel, Predator

Aminex

2018  was a mixed year for Aminex, Ruvuma had two CPR’s that increased resources substantially. To have booked 2C resources of 3/4 of a TCF and total resources of nearly 1.9 TCF GIIP is a meaningful amount of booked resources for a company of this size. This is before they were ascribed nearly another 1 TCF to a deeper Jurassic target which is proper exploration in nature but could also be a play opener.

The upcoming Chikumbi 1 well where recently the company has announced the results of a tender for drilling services will ultimately be targeting the Jurassic but the main reservoir will be the same Cretaceous package successfully tested in Ntorya 1 and 2 but further updip which theoretically means a larger gas Column.

The reasons behind the farmout deal with the Zubairs has rarely been explained in my view in any detail. In any success case the shareholders get carried through a full development programme and in due course material levels of cash flow with no further recourse to capital, indeed it will throw off cash. Final close out of the remaining conditions is being negotiated at the moment but the value of the carry is historic by any reasonable comparisons.

Kiliwani has experienced ‘persistent ‘ delays at getting the well remediated due to lack of oilfield services in country but a slick line unit has been identified in country and work on the well continues. Kiliwani ‘remains a key area of focus’ for the company as I have described before as the licence runs to 2036, has no commitments and has a GSA in place so Aminex have been historically paid for their gas.

The Nguni impairment is a common sense decision, work continues at Songo Songo but success in the deeper water areas would require LNG which is way too big a ticket for Aminex to write. Aminex has cash from the year end, $1.86m plus the $2.4m placing in February, the farm-out payment due of $5m on closure and also the $3m receivable from th3 TPDC which should be honoured.

Aminex are acutely award of the support they have received from the cornerstone investor and their efforts on the farm-in are accelerating the process. The company have continued to cut overheads and, like shareholders share the pain of the low valuation of the assets. The comment regarding diversification of the portfolio certainly hit home with me, like Solo they need to expand outside of Tanzania to make those assets less of the total whilst gearing up the M&A will present opportunities to make transactions.

I have had a lot of inbound about Aminex in recent months and it would have been easy to have bottled out and closed the bucket list position. With John Bell installed as Chairman I am happy to give the company the benefit of the doubt and notice that directors have been buying the shares in the market.

Genel Energy

Genel has announced that the GLA does not reflect commercial realities of the proposed development and accordingly agreed to let it lapse on 30th April 2019. They will focus on negotiating updated commercial terms for that and Miran which expireS on  31 May 2019.

Predator

Figures from Predator this morning are dutifully meaningless but do confirm how far in the right direction this company has moved under Paul Griffiths’ watch and any of the three potential growth areas could get the company going.

A handy portfolio of assets has been accumulated in Trinidad, Ireland and Morocco with the former showing potential for CO2 EOR and the latter for developing gas in this highly mature market.

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