WTI $51.45 +$1.16, Brent $59.51 +75c, Diff -$8.06 -41c, NG $4.65 -5c
A better day yesterday although my trading friends say that to start with it looked like another melt, WTI traded sub $50 and looked dead and buried until someone found a quote from a sundry Russian saying that they may cut back production. With G20 starting today and Opec+ on Thursday we will have even more opportunity to hear a mixed bunch of soundbites and tweets from the assembled world leaders.
Yesterday I participated in a pre-Opec+ discussion on IGTV with Spencer Welch of IHS Markit where we discussed a number of options for next weeks meeting. The link is right here…
Tullow had their Capital Markets Day yesterday and although I wasn’t invited I did manage to pick out a few things that summed up their new priorities which very much centre on Guyana which clearly mean as much if not more for Eco Atlantic. They said that Guyana is their ‘top priority’ with two, possibly three wells planned for 2019 targeting combined resources of 1bn barrels out of a total unrisked resources of 4bn barrels which have a break even price in the low $30’s.
Tullow say that Guyana has the potential to be ‘a game changer’ for them which I am sure is right but if it has that potential for them I think that Eco Atlantic, with 15% of a potential 4bn barrels at a valuation of anywhere between $5-10 per barrel in the ground, makes a mockery of a market cap of around £70m…A very live candidate already for the 2019 stock of the year perhaps?
Providence has announced that it has stopped the well site survey at Barryroe after legal proceedings that should they have gone ahead might have meant a long and expensive judicial review. By postponing this and asking for a new permission to carry out the site survey the company thinks that it can hopefully restart in Q1 2019 and the planned drilling programme which was scheduled for 2Q next year should only be slightly delayed until 3Q next year. It would be easy to suggest that this is yet another delay for the ill-fated Barryroe project and the shares have reacted badly but to be frank I think that provided it really is only a delay of around a quarter then it’s manageable.
Earlier this week I had a chat with Doc Holiday of Total Market Solutions where we discussed the state of the oil market and ways of playing it at the moment, the link is below.
Another big weekend of sport looms whether you like football, racing, boxing or rugby.
Tonight sees the start of the 2nd Round of the FA Cup, a great weekend as all the ‘smaller’ clubs know that they are one tie away from meeting a Premier League side.
In the Prem it’s a huge weekend for local derbies, on Sunday there is the North London match between the Gooners and Spurs, in West London the Cottagers take the short ride up the Kings Road to face Chelski whilst in Liverpool the Toffees head over the park to fortress Anfield. On Saturday the Noisy Neighbours host the Cherries whilst the Red Devils go the other way to visit the Saints whilst the Hammers go to the on a run Magpies…
Of course in the very early hours of Sunday it’s the long awaited bout between Wilder and Fury, who can call it but sure as can be AJ will be watching on…
And great racing too, at Newcastle it’s the Fighting Fifth where Buveur D’Air takes on Samcro and also a good card at Newbury.
And the rugby Prem is back after the autumn internationals with the Quins hosting the Chiefs tonight and Sarries v Wasps tomorrow.