WTI $43.16 -$1.54, Brent $45.45 -$1.59, Diff -$2.29 -5c, NG $2.79 -10c
Had I been writing yesterday I would have still had concerns about Hurricane Hermine, then a tropical storm, causing grief in the Gulf of Mexico. Today it has passed but is causing trouble in Florida which has declared a state of emergency. Oil has fallen again, another dollar and a half yesterday means we are nearly five bucks off the recent high as inventory stats put further downward pressure on markets. Having said that the Genscape figures reported a draw of 714/- barrels at Cushing which is a small help.
Markets in general are, as ever, watching out for today’s Non-farm payroll number, as I write the expectation is a number something north of 180/- which would confirm a rate rise in the US sooner rather than later. This afternoon we will get the rig count number which could be anything. Monday is Labor Day in the US, a traditional end of summer, back to school holiday and of course signals the end of the driving season for another year. For the next month it’s worth watching all the inventories even more carefully and how the refiners change from gasoline production to heating oil.
Range took a pasting yesterday, and to a lesser extent this morning after an unwelcome distraction in the form of a demand from ANH in Colombia to the total tune of $53m. This refers back to the revoking of a number of licences previously held by a consortium led by Optima Oil Corp. The money is due apparently as work commitments were not fulfilled and money not provided for total funding. This deal was done way back in 2011/12 under that previous board we know so well. Optima are funding an expensive legal action to fight this case and as they are, under the JOA, liable for anything due to ANH and should have to indemnify Range. The Range share price has reacted sharply as one might expect but on looking closely at potential liability to Range I see very little to cause any significant grief. Even in the last resort, and the consortium lost the case and Optima didnt cover Range, then they have no assets to speak of in-country and would fight the case in Australia which would hardly be worth it for ANH although that is probably not the way to look at it. So, the ghost of PL lives on, I prefer to look at the recent operational successes which make Range look very strong rather than historic problems which should be more of a nuisance than anything more.
Another day, another operational update from PPC, this one is a sort of good news, bad news one with the emphasis on the good. They say that operations are ongoing at DP 1002 S/T on the Puerto Guardian permit in Argentina and the well should hook up in early October and add around 500 b/d which doubles the production on the concession. This is despite some delays which have led to a sidetrack and new kit which I understand should be at no cost to PPC. An additional piece of potential upside is that four, old shut-in wells will be worked over in the autumn and with new technology should provide additional production from here. Positive news despite the delays and I remain happy that PPC is in positive territory.
One doesnt normally write up, even in Sundry, when a company announces that it is moving to trading on SETS and that it has a new presentation on its website. However, given how important it is going to be, trying to get an idea of the size of the Tendrara discovery is important and lurking in the new presentation are some interesting details. I know it is only extrapolating existing data but the slide of near term potential has 200-300 Bcf in the 17km² area and 3-4 Tcf in the outer, 250km² area, and of course with another 1,800km² and more to look at one can infer what it might be if all the wells come in…
On Wednesday instead of my usual Monday slot I did a podcast on Aminex and Independent Oil & Gas, here is the link.
Vox Markets podcast: Malcy on Aminex and Independent Oil & Gas plus Alan Green likes Cake
And in my latest chat with Interactive Investor I discuss BP and Shell and a handful of shares that are knocking on the door of the bucket list…
Interactive Investor interview: Who’s best, BP or Shell?
Interactive Investor interview: Five oil shares worth tracking
The dreadful ‘international break’ is upon us but at least it gives England fans the chance to see quite what a mess Woy had got us into. So it’s the World Cup qualifiers now and on Sunday afternoon England go to Slovakia whilst the sweaties are in Malta and Northern Ireland go to the Czech Republic.
England won yet again in the white ball cricket although with less of the flair and panache of before with Stokes and Bairstow grinding out the victory to go 4-0 up in the series with one to play on Sunday.
The US Open tennis is providing home players with as much success as we have had for a long time with messrs Muzza, Evans and Edmond and Ms Konta all in the 3rd round.
And of course it’s the Italian GP at Monza where it should be back to a Mercedes shoot-out as usual.
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