WTI $41.92 -$1.00, Brent $43.47 -$1.40, Diff $1.55 -40c, NG $2.67 -4c

Oil price

The oil price continues to drift off, with only the inventory stats seeming to influence at the moment and they are all bearish. Yesterday the EIA reported a build of 1.7m barrels against a forecast of a draw of 2m, teenage scribblers really not on the case at the moment. Gasoline built by 462/- barrels which wasnt as bad as expected but refinery rates are up and the market is not happy, it will get worse before it gets better. It will be interesting to see tomorrows data from the CFTC, it looks a bit as if money managers are increasing their short positions.


About the only thing going for Genel at the moment is that they are receiving full payments from the KRG at the moment meaning that they can progress investment on most fronts. Unfortunately the new, lower production guidance announced recently only brings down revenues and compromises value.


This week has seen the international oil majors produce Q2 numbers and it has been a mixed bag. So far BP and Statoil have missed their forecasts while Shell was a mixed bag although with a much better production figure, outwith BG. Total seem to be the star of the show, beating the whisper with out put and realisations up whilst beating their own target on cost savings. Repsol also beat the whisper and increased output not just from Talisman but also saw falls in downstream margins like the others.

Weir Group maintain guidance but the numbers were disappointing, particularly for a share that has doubled this year on a bit of a promise. Keith Cochrane has resigned as CEO and is to be replaced by current CFO Jon Stanton, this is exactly how the board played it when Keith arrived, I wonder if any thought was given to an external appointment of the next CEO?

And Tullow reported better than expected numbers yesterday and defied the doubters by announcing that the first shipment from TEN is being prepared and that Shell will take 650/- barrels in August. I remain positive on Tullow and consider the previous high of around 280p to be perfectly possible.

And finally…

The US PGA starts today and the field seems to be wider open that it might have been after recent results, ie it’s not the four glamour boys who have pulled out of Rio who lead the way.

And Celtic went to Astana last night and came back from 1-0 down to snatch what might be a useful draw.