WTI 28.46 -96c, Brent $28.76 -18c, Diff -30c -117c, NG $2.09 -1c

Oil price

The reprieve for the oil price was indeed temporary and when the IEA report came out with its headline of the oil market ‘drowning in oversupply’ all bets were off. This morning prices are lower again with still no sign of anything positive on the horizon. The IEA did increase its non-Opec production fall to 600,000 b/d but that will be offset by an equally large Iranian supply by the mid year.

Product markets are also weak in the USA and retail gasoline is another 8.2 cents down on the week at $1.914 a gallon. Inventory stats out a day late due to MLK day.

Shell/BG

In trading updates released early so to be ahead of next weeks votes the numbers actually didnt look that bad. BG had record volumes with QCLNG ramping up and the 6th FPSO in Brazil coming onstream, also 282 LNG cargoes were up 58%. Shell has 4Q earnings at $1.6-1.9bn, $10.4-10.7bn for the year. Gearing was slightly up at 14%, dividends are safe through 2016 and capex is down more than expected, combined capex in 2016 of $33bn will be 45% off the peak.

Genel

There is not much one can really add on Genel until after the results presentation. A slight miss on revenue guidance was hardly a surprise and providing the regular, if modest payments from the KRG continue they will as they say ‘weather the storm’. Genel reminds the market that its costs are low by international standards and should ensure long term survival.

Sundry

Plexus announce a new contract with another new client in Oman, Masirah Oil worth around $0.6m.

VOG has announced that trading in the 4th quarter was significantly up y/y at 7.1 mmscf/d but at the end of the low season, Januarly has already seen a peak of 16.6mmscf/d.

Thalassa has reported in a trading update that operating results will exceed analysts expectations on revenue and profits but will also see estimated impairments of assets by up to $14m. More after I have spoken to Duncan…

Faroe has been awarded 6 new licences in the Norwegian round and with no commitments gives it more backlog and potential for the future.

And finally…

No more surprises from Melbourne except that it was raining this morning…

In the FA Cup replays no surprises there either, Villa beat Wycombe and Pompey beat the Tractor boys which i suppose was a bit of a shock. Eastleigh’s run came to and end though.