WTI $41.85 +20c, Brent $44.44 -17c, Diff $2.59 -36c, NG $2.23 n/c

Oil price

Just back from a swift visit to Du bail which I shall write up in due course, not much around today but as I have a number of interesting meetings that’s not a problem.

Ahead of Friday’s Opec meeting it is not surprising that few short term positions are being accumulated,although the hedgies are betting on no change and are pretty short…  Yesterday despite a weaker greenback the oil price was listless and the API inventory stats which come out after the close were worse than expected showing another build, this time of 1.6m barrels against forecasts of a build of around .05m. The IEA boss has come out with a forecast that oil will start rising in 2017 and settle at around $80 for the longer term, so that’s another guess to add to the pot.


A good time to put a statement out about the OBA as market jitters would probably have been emerging before long. The update says that all links are going to plan and that the environmental licence approval is ‘imminent’. The company expects to perform operational testing and commissioning of the pipeline, measurement of export pumping systems and expects this to be completed ‘by the turn of the year’. This is very good news all round for AMER as it paves the way for a significant increase in production and therefore revenues and may well turn the pipeline into a vehicle for offering crude transport to third parties thus creating more revenue and value into the bargain. I remain solidly of the view that the market is yet to appreciate what value this will put on the company and therefore stay extremely positive on the shares.

Gulfsands Petroleum

It is not possible to be positive about Gulfsands who remain firmly on the blacklist at the moment. While I was away the company announced that ONHYM had declined the company’s request for a two year extension on the Rharb agreement and what is more is seeking a forfeit of the $1m guarantee and imposes a penalty of $7.5m. It doesnt end there as GPX are carrying a value of $29.3m in the books for this asset which will have to be impaired at the year end. Unless there is something in the portfolio that I dont know about, and this announcement makes me worried about other commitments that the company has in Morocco,I can see no reason the own the shares.

And finally…

Plenty has been going on in my absence, Tyson fury won the World titles he was seeking so very well done to him for that. The British team won the Davis Cup which was, to be fair, totally down to Muzza. Initial long odds for him to be Sports Personality of the year disappeared like snow flakes in spring time but if the evens is still on offer that too maybe a value bet.

Last night in the C*apital Cup the Noisy Neighbours cruised past the Hull City Tigers, the Toffees destroyed Boro and the Potters beat the Owls. Tonight the HubCap Stealers, on a great run, go to the Saints.