WTI $59.95 -99c, Brent $63.68 -56c, Diff $3.73 +43c, NG $3.63 -7c
Yesterday it was the turn of the IEA to keep the downward pressure on the oil price by cutting its global demand forecast for the 4th time in five months. Their number is now for a rise of 900/- b/d, down 230/- from their previous forecast/guess. They now, like Opec have a call on the cartel of 28.9m b/d which may be optimistic.
Whilst I still believe that there is no obvious floor for the oil price at least in the short term, it will be interesting to see when forecasters decide that prices down here will stimulate demand. Probably sometime next year, just when expensive crude is off the market, executives have finalised their capex cuts and when it is too late to turn the taps on again, unless you are Saudi Arabia of course…
The company announced that they have received final EIA approval for the second appraisal well on Nervesa, assuming final ok imminently I would expect work to commence on site shortly and a spud date of very early next year. Sound will be one of the companies looking forward to 2015 as the next 15-18 months looks very exciting pretty much whatever the oil price. After Nervesa will come Badile then SMG and Laura all of which offer potentially significant upside. As a huge consumer of gas, the Italian market aint going anywhere and the price is rock solid which means that investors should look very carefully at Sound for next year, it certainly has a guaranteed place in the bucket list being prepared at the moment. Antrim shareholders should take note and remember that going in with Sound may be a smarter move than staying put with all that entails…
I suspect that this will be the last mention of Range in the blog as with todays announcement the death knell sounds for Range at 0.8p. Last week I suggested that shareholder apathy had handed the company over on a plate and received a torrent of abuse but when the vote was 14%-12% as it appears to have been, then most of the shareholders vicariously signed their own death warrant.
Today sees Core Capital injecting up to $60m into the company in equity and debt which will give them up to 47.4% of the company on conversion. Fellow Chinese service company LandOcean will provide a credit facility for work they will do in Trinidad.
I might be totally wrong here but this looks like a back door takeover at a price that previous management not only would never have agreed to, but were not given the chance to demonstrate could be achieved. I know many holders will say that they did vote at the AGM but the facts say something else altogether, once again be careful what you wish for…
An update from Rockhopper today on the company’s Mediterranean operations following the bedding down of the MOG assets. Guendalina is progressing, predictably slowly but the company is working with ENI to hasten a sidetrack and ultimate back to production. Civita is a modest gas field but with a rate of return in excess of 20% every little counts as they say. The company has also confirmed that it has applied for licences in the Croatian and Montenegro offshore rounds and should hear relatively soon if they have had any success. Whilst the Med is small by comparison with Rockhopper’s other assets it would be wrong to rule out the area as we have discovered elsewhere there is money in them there hills.
I was so flabbergasted by the announcements in recent weeks from Worldview that following the statement today from Petroceltic I had to pick up the phone to CEO Brian O’Cathain to have a quick sanity check. It does seem that Worldview think that Petroceltic failed to carry out a review of the business and also omitted a Capital Markets Day into the bargain, both appear flawed to me.
Firstly you have to bear in mind that this was during a time in which a bid had been made for the company suggesting, one hopes, that both bidder and the board who accepted it might have not only done a review but maybe even waved it past the legions of advisors on the notepaper. Secondly, call me old fashioned but I cant remember ever going to a Capital Markets Day during a bid situation. Can you imagine what it would be like, especially in an agreed bid whereby the value of the business has been demonstrated to be roughly agreeable to management and shareholders, trying to present to the teenage scribblers let alone an array of lawyers?
All being well I will be at the Capital Markets Day on 28th January, probably sitting next to Worldview who will be detectable by their red faces…
I promised to show you the link to the TipTV CEO interview I did with the wonderful Jay Cheatham of Pantheon earlier this week so here goes.
Last night in the Boropa Cup all three British teams lost but all three are in the next round, shivering in their boots in case a trip to Anfield beckons..
This weekend in the Prem there are some interesting fixtures, riding high Hammers go to the Maccams who have had a mixed few weeks but will be pleased that it hasn’t been as bad as that by the Hull City Tigers who go to Stamford Bridge for their sins. Arsenal host the Magpies and will be happy that Pardew has just won the poisoned chalice as manager of the month while the match that Gary Neville labelled a Sunday pub game takes place at the Theatre of Dreams as LvG’s lucky strikes take on the HubCap Stealers. On that note I see that Mr Torres is available in January on a free, having not won the hearts and minds at AC and not wanted back at the Bridge, the words mighty and fallen come to mind.
England won the cricket and again Taylor and Root anchored the innings, from little acorns….Nice to see Sean Abbott taking 6-14 for NSW and at the SCG as well….
This weekends rugby is a mirror of last weeks European cup fixtures and there is only one match to watch, after the outburst last week Toulon v Leicester will most definitely be ‘Le Crunch’ or a grudge match as its better known.
Talking of grudges as we were, over in Las Vegas tomorrow night Amir Khan takes on Devon Alexander for the privilege of losing to Floyd Mayweather next year, the bookies have it evens Khan 7/2 the field…