WTI $65.84 -97c, Brent $69.07 -57c, Diff $3.23 +40c, NG $3.80 +15c
A mixed bunch of economic stats in the last few days but the prize must go to the non farm payrolls which coming in at 321/- trounced the whisper of 230/-. This demonstrated that the US economy seems to be pretty robust, add to that cheap gasoline and the world is your lobster Rodney…
News from the east wasn’t so clever with Chinese trade data poor, but also showed just what I thought, in that crude oil imports were up,higher than the economy demanded making strategic buying likely to have occurred. Japanese 3Q GDP numbers were restated again, this time from minus 1.6% to 1.9%.
And Secretary of Energy Ed Davey stepped into the ‘carbon bubble’ debate by saying that fossil fuel use will be ‘almost non-existent’ in thirty years time which sounds most interesting, if Carlsberg made cars…(PS the livestock industry accounts for 15% of global emissions which is the same as the amount produced by all the vehicles in the world running on fossil fuels)
Plenty of column inches about BP this weekend, mainly after the FD said that ‘we have flexibility in our programme to trim into next year if that’s what we need in a new world of oil at $70 or $60 or whatever that is’. He also indicated that headcount would be coming down across all our activities as part of an ongoing cost reduction programme. I would suggest that with Rosneft needing to refinance a $9.4bn loan before Christmas and ongoing costly litigation in the US that dividend hike earlier in the year was most definitely irresponsible. The company have, I understand, a Capital Markets Day on Wednesday so those who have been invited to that will have much to say later in the week.
A big week for Nighthawk as the new management are in town with an updated operational review and corporate presentation. The details they have furnished this morning are quite positive showing 81 new well locations and 16 up-hole completions a figure which is growable. The company say that they can achieve a 25% break-even rate of return at ‘below current market prices’ and that production can increase in 2015. I am looking at all the recommendations at the moment and if Hawk’s production can remain profitable at a low oil price it might be one to hang on to.
Europa Oil & Gas
News today from EOG as Kosmos has been doing some work on the Irish Atlantic margin acreage which one day might just be a company maker for them. Kiernan prospect has now become Beckett and Wilde with 760 mmbo and 493 mmbo respectively which looks slightly better than I last saw, meanwhile Mullen has become Doyle A and Doyle B and appears a little smaller. The timing of drilling on these prospects is still uncertain but now I reckon it will be 2016 at the earliest which is about what the partners had in the diary, 2015 would have been too optimistic.
After my piece on Bowleven on Friday I had a very full mail bag and a lot of discussion on Twitter. The company really does look like it could be a big winner next year and remains on my buy list, like a number of you though who worry, Etinde approval needs to get across the line, I am genuinely sure that there isnt a problem here. Finally I checked my notes and the Zingana rig is in country and will probably spud in January.
And I spotted that Ithaca have announced 8.6m share options at C$1.06 which may look good value in the long term…
So, Ronnie O’Sullivan won the snooker but not without making life harder for himself having had a big lead twice he left it until the deciding frame to beat Judd Trump.
European rugby was back and Quins beat Leinster 24-18 and having bigged them up, Glasgow lost 19-11 in Toulouse…Sarries beat Sale and the best match or at least post game conference-wise was Leicester beating Toulon 25-21, watch the rematch next weekend…
England lost the cricket again but James Taylor at last came off the bench and scored 90….
Its the FA Cup third round draw at 7 pm tonight so there will be some minnows looking out for the glamour ties against one of the big boys.
Talking about the big boys there were a few odd results in the Prem at the weekend as Chelski went to the Magpies and apparently got beaten by the ball boys… The Hammers go third with a good 3-1 win against Swansea but the Gooners got their usual seeing to at Stoke and the Foxes lost at Villa, a lot has been made about no sackings in the league yet but Leicester City might well be the first. Saints host Utd tonight…