WTI $94.42 -46c, Brent $98.97 -8c, Diff $4.55 +80c, NG $4.01 +2c

Oil price

The oil price remains relatively week but looks to be trying to form a bit of a base around here, after the Fed stated yesterday that ‘accommodative interest rates would remain for a considerable time’ the greenback strengthened again…

The EIA stats mirrored those of the API, analysts were completely wrong getting both the sign and the size incorrect, the build was 3.7m barrels vs a guess of a draw of 1.6m barrels. Nobody has told the little darlings that refinery runs decline in September, Wall Street banks employing them should insist they read the blog before forecasting stuff they don’t know!

Scotland

So, its the big day and Scotland goes to the polls to decide on independence. Whilst the blog does not get involved in politics it is hard to work out how the risk reward ratio has been calculated here and on a purely oil and gas basis the numbers are hardly compelling enough to tip the baby out with the bath water…

Caza Oil & Gas

Sometimes I think I am bashing my head against a brick wall with stocks but the market, whilst always being right, can often get its timing wrong. Caza has today announced the preliminary result of the Broadcaster 29-3H well and if the share price doesn’t go through the roof it will be the opportunity of a lifetime. Still not yet at TD the well is producing 2,621 boe/d and is already going to sales. CEO Mike Ford says that this is an ‘exceptional’ result and on its own would be transformational but this is only one of a number of very good well results released by the company in recent months. Ford also states that the impressive use of new frac technologies is improving the economics considerably and so the good news goes on.

Caza tends to move in unfathomable ways, it will have a huge bounce then stay at a level for a while, at 8-9p it did then moved up to 18-23p, this must be time for another serious bounce. The value of Caza has increased substantially with recent results and the market hasn’t noticed, soon the industry will as net production screams through the magical 2/- b/d, don’t say you haven’t been warned, Caza is worth well in excess of 50p a share, more later if I get to speak to the company this afternoon.

And finally…

Still on football and it wasn’t a good night for English clubs in the Champions League with the Noisy Neighbours losing to Bayern and Chelski only drawing with Schalke. Both teams will very likely go through so its not panic time but rather disappointing.

Tonight we are back to the Boropa Cup with Spurs and Everton in action, also Delia Smith at Celtic will be hoping for better results than the time in the Champions League recently.

How long will owners and the baying fans take to realise that Fulham manager Felix Magath is totally useless? Having come in with a reputation for draconian training methods he has proved to not to match those with coaching skills. Another drubbing last night leaves the club with a 1 from 21 points achievement this season and after relegation they are now at the foot of the Championship…

Another manager in some trouble is the baby-faced assassin over at Cardiff, he has lasted longer than I expected already and he should slip off sharpish so as not to sully his name any more…