WTI $95.58 -$2.01, Brent $102.01 -$2.27, Diff $6.43 -26c, NG $3.91 +7c
The oil price continues to fall as the fundamentals of significant supply outweigh worries on the political front. In that respect there are some slight signs of light in the situation in Iraq with the humanitarian position not quite as bad as first thought but also as Maliki appears to be going quietly. For Kurdistan the new Premier can only be a good thing as brusque treatment from Baghdad might now be a thing of the past. It is interesting to note that senior figures in Turkey are calling on the US to ‘remove challenges to Kurdish oil sales’ which makes sense and after years of having its budgets withheld the KRG looks like it may be getting some protection.
Also on the supply side Libyan officials have announced that the Es Sider facility is to resume exports ‘within a couple of days’ which will substantially boost the amount of quality crude available in the Atlantic, not good for Brent. I refer back to my interview with IG a couple of weeks back where I said in answer to a question about the oil price chart being in a delicate position that the downside was the biggest risk, I remain sure that that is still the case.
Rosneft has apparently appealed to the Russian Government for a huge bail-out as their debt pile rises, now I am sure that cash flow remains positive round there but longer term projects are starting to look uneconomic without western service companies kit and if I were BP I would be getting a touch nervous.
Two companies arresting their slides yesterday by buying back shares were Ophir and Genel, in both cases companies have pots of cash and buying back cheap shares is an eminently sensible thing to do.
After the disappointment of the Jacaranda well on Wednesday I went to see John Hamilton and Richard Hubbard at President Energy yesterday. I will write it up in future blogs but the meeting was very positive and I am definitely going to give them the benefit of the doubt at these levels, it remains however a risky play in frontier acreage.
I went on TipTV yesterday and discussed Egdon, Alkane Energy, Faroe and President and those interviews are on the TipTV website and should be on mine soon.
The Premiership starts tomorrow and already we have had the first managerial departure as Tony Pulis, the saviour of Crystal Palace last season has left the club, apparently there is no money for signings, its pretty bad news down at Selhurst Park though.
The final test match starts today and I shall be in the Oval office to view proceedings, it looks like the phantom of the opera will play.
Meanwhile in a very low scoring match England’s women are fighting it out in their test match, at this stage anything could happen.
And don’t miss the women’s World Cup final on Sunday afternoon when England take on Canada, remember they drew in the group stages so anything might happen…
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