WTI $100.59 +60c, Brent $108.41 +52c, Diff $7.82 -8c, NG $4.43 -10c

Oil price

Everything is a bit of a muddle in blog land at the moment, many meetings and company visits combined with a two day roadshow at the end of this week for an exciting small explorer. The IGas/Dart takeover on Friday came after the blog went out so I have decided that with no blog yesterday that I will write a combined two day ‘shale free’ round-up first and then,following this morning’s Alkane/Egdon asset deal put thoughts on both deals in a shale special later today.

As for the oil price it is mercifully doing not a lot at the moment, if it wasn’t for Ukraine it would probably be lower and Brent looks exposed to me especially with Libyan exports starting to ramp up after the western oilfields and pipelines have been re-opened. WTI will move on the inventory stats and in order to hedge their bets the US analysts are predicting neither a rise nor a fall in inventory figure for tonight and tomorrow, a stance which can only go horribly wrong!

So, to round up todays news…

Ithaca has announced 1Q figures which as I always say are pretty meaningless but I would point out that cash flow is growing fast as are post tax profits and the accumulation of cash from various sources is one of my reasons for being so positive on the shares. The delay on Greater Stella announced last week is disappointing, but in the whole scheme of things shouldn’t be taken as really bad news and I remain very much in the bulls camp on Ithaca.

Mediterranean Oil and Gas has announced decent production increases for Guendalina and along with various other bits of good news makes the stock look oversold to me although it may take a bit more time for the market to take this into account. I had a long one on one meeting with Bill Higgs, MOG CEO yesterday and will do a much more detailed write-up in the next few days.

Azonto, nee Rialto, has kept its head down since the renaming and confirmation of the new management team and a time that has seen a bit of a change in its industry partners. The publication today of a resources report on C1-202 in the Cote d’Ivoire is a step in the right direction and whilst this is a recovery story in the making, it is early days yet and one to be watched rather than participated in at this stage.

Tangiers has confirmed that it has raised a short A$5m to put in the kitty ahead of its carried well TAO-1 on Tarfaya in Morocco. Tangiers has been up to all sorts of stuff in recent weeks and the antics of some of the shareholders and advisors has been very much short of what might be described as best industry practice, although the shareholders can of course do as they please. Firing what seemed to be a good quality management team and not going ahead with what looked like an eminently sensible merger/takeover was ‘brave’ by the shareholders and makes the Morocco well even more of a company maker or breaker than it was before. With the last two wells offshore in the country being dusters, the backers will have tested their coronary rhythms significantly and  they will be to put it in the vernacular, cacking it whilst the well goes down…

I note the Lex Column in the FT is taking the same view as mine as the amount of M&A in the E&P sector steps up. I couldn’t help noticing that this activity as well as some of the favourable well results has led to a stunning performance by Mark Redway over at Redstream Fund Management in his recent activity report, he continues to set the bar high and then beat it.

In yesterdays news, Faroe gave back a little of the recent gains after Butch East came up dry, this doesn’t detract from the main Butch prospect which goes ahead as planned as does the Pil side-track due to announce soon.

Northern Petroleum announced more results from Canada where the company is pinning its hopes on its new policy of ‘production led’ growth and the creation of value through increasing cash flow. Whilst still relatively modest, the good news is a step in the right direction and I look forward to hearing the overall strategy from Keith and the team at a private meeting I am having with the company next week so will report back after that.

News from Fastnet Oil & Gas that they have appointed Will Holland as their new CFO comes as a pleasant surprise. I know Will from Macquarie days and I’m sure that this will be a big plus for Cathal, Paul and the team as they carry on with the programme. Obviously the recent duster offshore Morocco was a disappointment but I remain confident that with another carried well here, as well as onshore in the country, not to mention the Celtic Sea acreage there is still plenty of upside for Fastnet.

The recent activity in Wessex Exploration has doubled the price to 1p a share but for a company that was ten times as big as this only two years ago it is a bit little a bit late. The rabbit that the management appears to have ‘miraculously’ pulled from the hat may do the trick in the short term but given the nature of the assets and the management potentially coming in I am far from optimistic about the prospects although I suspect it may do it for holders in the very short term. I remain highly sceptical until I can have it proved that this is anything but a means of prolonging the agony for Wessex but it may be a bright new tomorrow in which case I will re-assess having heard Mr Cochran’s plans…

Danny Fortson in the Sunday Times predicted the resignation from Premier of Andrew Lodge as its exploration chief, with apparent bids from Ophir and EnQuest apparently turned down and the hunt for a new CEO taking forever, the future for Prems is far from certain but this is no time to be short this one…

Finally on the oil ‘patch’ I must report on what can only be described as the great oil industry asparagus spear-off which took place yesterday. In a moment of madness Billy Clegg, late of FTI Consulting and now in charge of Camarco, challenged Stuart Joyner, late of Investec and now CFO over at Sound Oil to see who’s spears were better and tastier. I was very honoured to be asked to judge the competition and in a blind tasting thought that whilst Billy’s spears were generally thicker and less uniform than Stuart’s (including a spear that Bill Clinton would have been proud of) the taste prize went to Mr Joyner. I think that when Billy found out that Stuart had 11 acres of the vegetable to choose from and he had about 11 feet, his goose was effectively cooked. Next year we will try and find other oil industry executives to step up the challenge Stuart and Billy…

And finally…

From the weekend where we finally put the Premiership to bed and the noisy neighbours emerged triumphant at the expense of the HubCap Stealers. Next year the latter will have to get used to playing a lot more football after the relaxing midweeks of this season but European travels will be great fun. Man U carefully avoided having to play Thursday night soccer in the Boropa League leaving Tottenham and Everton that joy.

In Scotland it will be the Championship where all the fun will lurk, Celtic were awarded next years title on Sunday whilst they were getting this years as yet again there will be few decent games in that league. Indeed, apart from in Dundee there will be no derby games, at least if Hibs go down there will be an Edinburgh derby but with Rangers now in that league as well, that will be where the excitement will lie and getting out of it will prove to be most challenging.

More fun in Spain as with Athletico and Barca drawing and Real losing the inner will be from the A vs B shootout at the weekend..

Lewis wins what was a surprisingly exciting Grand Prix in Spain and although the domination of Mercedes is not dis-similar to that of Red Bull last year it is fun to see Vettel not having it all his own way and proving that it was his car, not his natural talent that won him all those titles…

Today sees further evidence of the decline in fortune of football in the Midlands as The Baggies sack Pepe Mel, (what a joke getting rid of Clarke was) Villa are put up for sale and the owner of Birmingham City languishing in a Chinese jail, chaos in the midlands eh?

And confirmation this morning that Tim Sherwood has been fired as manager of Spurs, worst kept secret but typical despicable DL eh?

QPR beat Wigan in overtime to be rewarded with a game against Derby in the play off final where we will be privileged to see the return of the wally with the brolly, with Stuart Pearce returning next year all the old losers are finding their way back as only football can reward failure…