WTI $99.74 -$1.54, Brent $108.07 -91c, Diff $8.33 +60c, NG $4.82 -2c
Its a funny old world, yesterday I flew back from town and wrote an afternoon blog, today although there is news out I could do the same as yesterday or even write two blogs. The reason being as although the BG figures are out, the conference call isn’t until noon so wont finish until around 2, and of course at noon we will also get the Exxon and Conoco numbers, I might do a flash but will fill in tomorrow.
The oil price is falling, Brent because Zueitina is about to ship its first shipment and WTI because the EIA stats showed another rise to a new record. Although stocks were only up 1.7m barrels, 0.7m shy of the forecast, down at the Gulf they were worse and the overall number of 399.4 million barrels is a new record. Another interesting stat for you, PADD 1 (East coast) refineries in January took 50% of domestic crude and would you guess the Jan 13 and 11 figure? 18% and 5% respectively, if that doesn’t make you stop and think nothing will!
Despite the miserable US GDP numbers, the FOMC continued to blame the weather and cuts back the stimulus by another $10bn so markets continued to rise, indeed the Dow registered another new high. Today is the 1st May so the selling season is upon us, remind me, what day is the St Leger?
I’m not going to say much about BG now because the conference call is at midday and I hope it will answer a few questions, I intend to write a big piece about it tomorrow rounding up the whole week as it were. The figures were roughly in line, disappointing I would say, sacking the CEO must mean that the business is not performing up to scratch. LNG is the big question I want to hear asked at the meeting, after Shell and Statoil it looked very poor and if they say that they had less exposure to the US market I simply wont believe them. Down 7% and higher operating costs is not something I expected and it looks as if, like elsewhere in the business eyes are off the ball. The shares are up again today, reflecting two things, firstly joy that this wasn’t a profit warning (although it couldn’t have been, after Mondays announcement anything like that would have to have been included) even though 2015 guidance has been withdrawn (you cant miss guidance if you don’t have any) and secondly that a break up is imminent. The second guess must be right, BG cannot carry on as before as it clearly cant manage its existing portfolio satisfactorily. More later/tomorrow.
Genel has announced that it has completed the bond issue at a creditable 7.5%, high enough but less than other companies in the sector. Interestingly it has increased the size of the issue from $400m to $500m, you know what they say, if the ducks are quacking…..and Mr Metherell certainly knows when that is occurring!
This was going to be in sundry but I feel it is worth a slot on its own after news yesterday on Guatemala which I mentioned and the Q1 figs which I didn’t. Firstly I saw the company getting a lot of stick that they didn’t put out both releases simultaneously, this was not an option as Citation had the news to release and Range being dual-listed had to announce in Australia. In London Nomads etc had to check the Q1’s so I hope that is put to bed. Further news on Guatemala is that despite being early days it just may be a decent find, the structure might be bigger than anticipated but lets not pre-judge anything.
The figures are neither here nor there, I think that the new CEO is getting unnecessary stick for trying to be open and honest about the debt situation. Lets be frank about this, previous management have put in place horrendous financing, the reality of which I couldn’t start to comment on as I would end up inside but for a decent set of assets it was appalling. With new finance staff on board I am confidant that the new team can work things through, also as you know I think that the Land Ocean deal, albeit at a very early stage, may also be potentially very exciting. I said yesterday that I thought I had got this one close to or even at the bottom, although as always, I caveat this I still believe this to be the case…
Standing by for figs from Conoco and Exxon any minute and with Chevron tomorrow I think that it wont have been too bad a week lets see..
Weir Group’s trading statement was ok, no better with good news in oil and gas and power and industrial but a bit mixed elsewhere, more tomorrow on this.
Heritage, I see in the FT that Mr Buckingham is going to be paid £166,667 a month which goes to show that he usually does better than his shareholders…
So Chelski didn’t quite have enough juice to put away Athletico who now have a dream final with Real, one who want to win for the first time and one who want ‘La Decima’. Ironically Chels got thwarted by their own keeper, that will teach them to loan out a player to save a few quid…
And Captain Cook has taken to shafting people, fresh from ousting English Kev he has now fired his own batting coach Graham Gooch who admittedly didn’t have a good winter either…
It was 20 years ago today and we think of Ayrton Senna…
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