WTI $100.26, +$1.07, Brent $107.03 +4c, Diff $6.77 -$1.03, NG $4.40 -1c

Oil price

Once again I have not much to report, WTI rose yesterday on the back of Barry in the Maison Blanc saying that he was considering tougher economic sanctions against Russia ‘including in the energy sector’. Elsewhere on the sanctions front it appears that Iran have been producing around 1.3m b/d so far this month which is technically above their quota, I wonder if they have been given the nod that its ok?

The EIA inventory stats once again confounded the scribblers, crude built by 6.6m barrels and most of that is in the Gulf where refineries are in between winter and spring runs so not buying as much as usual.


Afren had final results out this morning and as we know, 2013 was a very good year. With revenue of $1.6bn and cash flow of over $1bn giving profits of $475m and EPS of 43.8c Afren continued to prosper. Production came in at the upper end of guidance at 47/- boe/d and for this year it is expected to be 62/-. With the OGO field being the third biggest discovery in the world last year and plenty of other exciting prospects in Africa and Kurdistan you might have thought that the market would have applauded but the cynics in the suits, or maybe nowadays the polo shirts feigned disinterest. For technically minded investors you don’t want Afren to fail at the 132p support level and assuming they don’t there must be  chance of a rally from here.

Mediterranean Oil and Gas/Leni Gas and Oil

Judgement was passed down this morning in the case taken by Leni against MOG. A glance at the share price movements tell you that Leni lost its claim but only fell some 4%, MOG rose by 29% showing how important it was for them. Pretty convincing stuff by the looks of it as the LGO case was dismissed and ‘failed at every stage’. Dr Higgs was told that there was ‘no question of any intention to mislead’ and exonerated. As the Judge said slipping into oil-ese, ‘LGO have realised that litigation is a high risk business and here they have failed to strike oil’.


Tullow has disappointed the market yet again with its latest well in Kenya, the Emong-1 chance of extending Ngamia is dry and despite this Tullow are maintaining a confident air about the country.

Xcite Energy has announced results and spoken about the Bentley farm-out with comments that are unlikely to help the price in the short term. You will know that I have been very cautious on these shares for a long time, not because I don’t like or believe in Bentley but more as I think that with farm-outs taking so long nowadays the shares would suffer from the waiting. This looks like it might continue as the statement goes on about enhancing service providers whilst the farm-out procedure continues. This was not what the massed ranks of shareholders wanted to hear and the stock is down another 11% this morning, if there is still a long way to go before positive news is forthcoming it may get worse.

Gulf Keystone announced its results this morning and having had so many presentations, meetings etc with the CPR, main market listing, debt offering and so on that there was virtually nothing we hadn’t already heard. Even the analysts on the conference call seemed to be suffering from GKP fatigue and questions were few and far between although one had to ask why they were raising debt not equity and if you have to ask that at 104p…………………………At this price the stock is too cheap although like a number of shares at the moment its friendless but must be worth accumulating down here.

Anyone waiting for write-ups of recent visits, particularly to see Hurricane and Range, please don’t panic they are coming soon, its been a very hectic week or so one way or another for meetings and results, funny that with April just around the corner. If you are one of the many who have messaged me about Range (and I’ve never had more- even on GKP!) rest assured that I had a very good meeting with Rory Scott Russell and he certainly seems to know what the problems are…more v soon.

Its Myanmar licence time and I have spotted Shell,Ophir and BG in the winners enclosure from over here but most international supermajors are prominent including Chevron and Total, old Myanmar favourites and Eni.

San Leon has farmed-out some of its Polish basin licences to Transatlantic Petroleum which seems eminently sensible but yet again the market has dissed it, that’s what happens in this day and age but yet again I have to point out that the list of advisors is almost longer than the announcement which does my head in, and I’m an advisor…

And finally…

Starting with the cricket, at the T20 world cup South Africa nearly lost to the Netherlands and as I speak England are playing Sri Lanka who should have been 4-2 if Jayawardene had walked when out to a fine catch by Michael Lumb.

The Hammers beat Hull City Lambs last night and then got booed off the pitch, can you believe it? My team who were in attendance did say it was a rubbish match but you don’t boo your own team for winning even if it was ugly do you?

Celtic won the title in Scotland but even as a St Johnstone fan I couldn’t say that there was any competition in that league, what a bore….

Muzza lost to Djokovic and has slipped to 8th in the world rankings and this ahead of the clay season…

And I did TipTV yesterday and you should find the links to my chat about Hurricane, Petrofac, Cairn and Xcite in the interviews section on the website www.malcysblog.com