Oil price, BP, SOCO, Sundry-Bowleven-NTOG-Egdon/Union Jack- And finally…

WTI $63.05 -$2.79, Brent $66.19 -$2.88, Diff $3.14 -9c, NG $3.60 -19c

Oil price

It was move down Monday as traders told me that in an extraordinarily illiquid market buyers stood off and let the price continue to fall. There is no obvious floor at the moment but the market should expect more pain, if you are a seller that is. The CEO of KNOC said yesterday that he thought the price would remain at ‘around $65 for the next 6-7 months’ at this rate that would be quite a result…

Things to be looking out for in the next few weeks will be the Baker Hughes rig count which was fun on the way up, will it telegraph the reverse on the way down, also check out drilling intentions which are already falling rapidly.

On the plus side the retail price of gasoline continues to fall, for their Christmas shopping and travelling at US moment punters are paying only $2.67 a gallon, another 10 cents down from last week and 59 cents less than at last yuletide.

BP

BP’s litigation in the US has been curtailed as the US Supreme Court has refused to hear the case over unjustified payments in what is a ‘huge victory for the Gulf’. Whilst BP continues to throw off cash it has managed to get itself into unnecessary problems in the USA and in Russia and increasing the dividend in the summer was an act of bravado which may well come back to haunt them.

SOCO

Probably not a good day to tell the market that you have more hydrocarbons than you had expected but SOCO has released its report by ERCE that franks its evaluation of the giant TGT field offshore Vietnam. 818 mmbo is upped to 949 mmbo with the extra potential of another 319 mmbo at present in the books at 298 mmbo. With potential of over 100/- b/d this field is a joy and will repay the faith of investors but maybe not right now.

Sundry

After commenting on Bowleven twice in a row today they have been granted an extension of the Bomono licence for another year. As mentioned yesterday the company confirm that the rig is mobilised and will spud ‘around the end of the year’.

NTOG has announced that its Chisholm Train CT16 well is producing at 555 boe/d  bringing in free cash flow which will lead to a relatively rapid payback. The company say that it is cash flow positive even at oil prices below $50. Next year, probably 2H will be a most interesting time for NTOG so worth keeping on the watch list.

And Egdon and Union Jack have received planning permission for their North Kelsey-1 exploration well.

And finally…

A respectful start to the test match between Australia and India with a packed stadium remembering Phillip Hughes. He would have enjoyed seeing David Warner making a big hundred although Clarke went off injured, Australia were 354-6 near the close.

In the Premiership last night the Saints appear to have been mugged by Man U who apparently were a tad fortunate to come away with all three points. RvP, having been out of the goals scored two last night, one of which was gift wrapped…

Tonight its crunch time at Anfield as the Hubcap Stealers must beat Basel to go through to the next round, knowing what the atmosphere is like up there they should do it. The Gooners go to Galatasaray which is never easy but they dont need to win.

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